Even though the Russians outsmarted the EU when they tried to confiscate Russian accounts over $100k Euros from Cyprus (as Europe put a freeze on all Cypriot accounts, but FORGOT TO DO THE SAME FOR THEIR AFFILIATED BRANCHES IN OTHER NATIONS!!! HOW INEPT CAN A UNION ACTUALLY BE?)
If Greece were to really to fall to the dogs, I'm sure Russia would be more than happy to relocate or lease a Greek port for a Russian Naval Base right in the middle of the Mediterranean and on Israel's left Flank that has been protected all this time by the body of water. Can the market discount stuff like this? The unintended consequences?
Believe it or not, I'm just getting around to the news and not surprising at all (maybe I'll dig up the posts from the Arab Spring that laid out and predicted all of this), the Egyptian military had to wait a little while and bide their time, but once again they'll likely look like heros to the populace as they once again grab control and the next president, despite any elections, will come from the Army and/or without a doubt, be Army approved. Any thought that the Egyptian Army isn't completely in control of the country's leaders should be wiped clean away, it's been this way since Nasser, you see what happened when Mubarak tried to side-step them and install his son and now after letting the Egyptian political process "look" unadulterated, they will once again, brilliantly take back control of Egypt and Musi will simply be the latest president to find out who's really in control, amazing efficiency and discipline.
- ARMY ROADMAP WOULD BE IMPLEMENTED IF PRESIDENT MURSI, OPPOSITION FAIL TO AGREE - SOURCES
- ARMY ROADMAP WOULD PROVIDE FOR RULE BY INTERIM COUNCIL UNTIL CONSTITUTION CHANGED - SOURCES
- ARMY ROADMAP ENVISIONS CONSTITUTION CHANGE WITHIN MONTHS, FOLLOWED BY PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION -SOURCES
- ROADMAP SUBJECT TO AGREEMENT OF OPPOSITION SALVATION FRONT, OTHER FORCES ONCE DEADLINE EXPIRES -SOURCES
Also a good reason as to why I didn't want to get involved in oil, although it still looks great for a move down.
From Merkel in an interview, a bit of a contradiction, but I think we all know what the truth is or the correct interpretation in case of this just being a misunderstanding...
- *GREECE MAY NOT GET NEXT EU8.1B AS PLANNED, MERKEL TELLS SZ
- *GREECE MAY GET NEXT EU8.1B IN TRANCHES, MERKEL TELLS SZ
- *MERKEL SEES NO ADDITIONAL DEBT CUT FOR GREECE: SUEDDEUTSCHE Z
Consider the 3-day ultimatum has been set and no political machine on the planet except a dictatorship can get anything done in 3 days so this is a clear move to "Excommunicate" Greece. If the Troika/IMF 3 day deadline seems harsh or unexpected, just remember this post and you know that I'm rarely interested in the news unless I believe it will have a material effect on fundamentals and Greece failing is certainly a fundamnetal worth understanding well before it happens as I tried to lay out in the June 10th post...
I think the entire post is worth going back and reading, but here are some highlights, this is why I featured this story, gave you the charts and let you know that this was the next big crisis coming down the road in Europe.
- the IMF says Greece needs another bailout, but this time refuses up front, to participate in one unless funding for the next 12 months can be secured to fill a $4.6 billion Euro shortfall. Troika's Greek GDP forecasts have been overly optimistic and real GDP has missed the Troika's dreams for each of the last 5 years consecutively.
- "The International Monetary Fund is set to admit to major missteps over the past three years in its handling of the bailout of Greece, the first spark in a debt crisis that spread across Europe."
- In an internal document marked "strictly confidential," the IMF said it badly underestimated the damage that its prescriptions of austerity would do to Greece's economy, which has been mired in recession for years....
- If you recall, we knew the moment we heard the final deal that this would be yet another filed Trokia/IMF bailout, it doesn't matter which country, they are always wrong.
- The IMF said that it bent its own rules to make Greece's burgeoning debt seem sustainable and that, in retrospect, the country failed on three of the four IMF criteria to qualify for assistance.
No comments:
Post a Comment