Update

I'm happy to see our positions for this leg are doing so well (UVXY over 50% and XLF entered today around 25%), but I was truly flabbergasted (isn't that a fun word to use, I feel like I actually have some command of my native tongue) to see this...

I only took 2 positions UVXY calls and XLF puts, with retail being so overwhelmingly bearish, it made no sense. The last retail sentiment update I received yesterday was that all of the bears were basically very quiet yesterday. 

It just so happened after I saw this I opened my email for today's retail sentiment update from Sam who is really excellent at reading the crowd. "Eh Sam?" 

Remember what I said about how "Fickle" retail is? They chase the market, they don't have any insight in to the market other than what has already happened and whatever inferences they can draw from that from price patterns., etc - All of the same stuff Wall St. uses against them.

From Sam this afternoon:

Subject, "bears not so bearish anymore"

Body: "Funny how a day or two gap ups make bears less bearish."

And as simple as that, that's really even more fickle than I thought.

In any case, here are just some basic updates of where we expected to be and where we are...

 The broader view that turned us on to the concept of what to expect next and what to expect after that, this is part of that analysis on the SPY 15 min chart, which was clearly turning negative by last Thursday when I started talking about our move up being interrupted and  really at the perfect time as retail was losing their bearish slant.

 The 3 min SPY chart, this was really helpful yesterday as all of the charts in this timeframe were very negative, these really supplied timing and essentially the entire "Daily wrap" last night in which I said in the opening lines that "Nothing about our expectations had changed".

 VXX the unleveraged version of UVXY (the call trade put on yesterday now at a +50% gain) shows perfect intraday confirmation.

Back out the exact same chart above from intraday to trend and you can see how clearly assets were confirming each other.

The 5 min UVXY from showing last week's move up as UVXY went strongly negative (it moves opposite the market) to showing the expectations for a move down in the market this week.

This is why I named "3C" as I did, a constant reminder to "COmpare, compare, compare", that's where probabilities are found.

And a 10 min UVXY chart showing us basically about how far this divergence has gone. Remember it is much less about time with these signals and much more about percentage moves.

So far so good, but I'm going to make sure nothing is creeping up on us.