Thursday, August 22, 2013

AAPL Update

AAPL has been pretty strong lately, however some recent weakness has taken hold and a range formed, whenever there's a range, there's usually something going on so this is what's going on.

 The 60 min chart has been strong and still is, I suspect it may see some weakness, perhaps not immediately, but if the 30 min chart keeps deteriorating it will move to the 60 min chart and then AAPL will have some trouble.

This is the 30 min chart, not as strong as the 60 min, but shows more detail and more recent action. You can see it too was confirming the uptrend and recently went negative at this small top.

This is why I say AAPL may have trouble ahead of it, but it would take some time for the 60 min chart to go negative enough that it's worth consideration as a short play.

 We have had a price range since the negative divergence at the recent highs, this 1 min chart shows an intraday positive leading divergence forming, it's impressive for a 1 min chart, but still a 1 min chart. All new divergences (we were coming off a negative divergence at the recent top) will start on the fastest charts (1-3 min). If the divergence is strong enough, it will migrate to a longer timeframe like 5 or 10 mins and then it becomes a higher probability trade.

The yellow line shows the range where stops will be congregated so don't be surprised if you see a break below that support line to hit stops and take their shares if the accumulation continues, that's a type of head fake move.

 The 2 min chart isn't as sharp, but it has a longer positive divergence.

I personally would not go long AAPL even for a quick trade with just the 1 and 2 min charts positiver, as you see below the 3 min is still in line. If the 3 min goes positive then I may reconsider.

The NASDAQ 100/QQQ definitely needs some help, perhaps AAPL is being sent in to do that.

3 min is still in line.

AAPL may make for a decent bounce trade if it can keep it together and the Q's can provide support.

No comments: