USO Update

I have been patiently waiting for a decent short set-up in USO for at least a few week now as USO has been in a large range (looks like strong distribution) since July.

There's a possible short set up working its way through now, I'll show you the basics and then it's "take it as it comes".

 This is the most important chart, a 60 min leading negative divergence within the range, this suggests a nice trending move to the downside which is what I'd like. I've found WTI crude has amazing resiliency against events in the MENA region (almost completely ignoring them).

From where USO is right now, I'd like to short in to some strength and enter near the top of the range, that's where the risk is smallest and on the way down if it looks like there's accumulation as we approach the bottom of the range, implying USO is still rangebound, then profits on a swing trade can be taken and wait for the next set up.

 The 5 min chart looks like USO is building a small base or starting to accumulate for a run toward the upper part of the range, however we have the same issue we had with the SPY's 15 min positive divergence and that is enough real-estate in the way of a base (price) to support a move higher.

 In the very short term (1 min intraday), it looks like USO will come down to what would likely be the base area and post more accumulation there, creating larger positives in the 5 min + charts and also creating that reversal process and enough of a base to support such a move.

I'll be setting alerts below to check on accumulation and above to know when USO is in the right area, but I like this a lot as a longer term trending trade, it may be a nice position with 2x leverage (short).