As I mentioned earlier, NYSE ETFs can have NASDAQ components that are used for balancing the ETF throughout the day so it was very difficult to tell which asset could be trusted and which couldn't.
A few things that did work out as expected, a number of names posted yesterday for a bounce (in to a short) and a few as long trades we've been in all worked out pretty well today.
The Odd 1 min 3C divergence last night that I rarely post for overnight trade carried the market up most of the overnight session with the help of the long awaited USD/JPY pair.
The signals suggesting Transports see upside action were perfect with a 2+% day (depending on the transport ticker you use), in fact quite a bit from yesterday went as expected today, however I have to say these market shenanigans had me on edge. I said HALF joking that a market crash that was truly caused by the F_E_D could be blamed on some Chinese hackers hacking in to the NASDAQ, then just for a cherry on top, Carl Icahn's AAPL tweet just before the NASDAQ re-opened with AAPL by far the largest component, you wouldn't think the NASDAQ 100 would have closed green today if you had just heard the news of what happened, at least I wouldn't and certainly not some 1%.
Perhaps most interesting to me as far as longer term analysis goes, there's no good argument for treasuries to be a buy, yet I've seen great signals in TLT (20+ year) as well as the 30 year Treasury futures, I've showed you how the signals in the 30 year are positive, but the 10-year negative, today the 5 and 7 year were sold and the 30 year was bought.
However not everything was so cut and dry, for example our Leading Sentiment Indicator that has been leading positive the last 2 days made a u-turn today.
As I have been saying for well over a week, the NASDAQ 100 / QQQ has been lagging the SPX badly in 3C action just as Tech has been lagging Financials, I even posted the Q's today just to show how bad, you can see the charts for the SPY from last night's post.
That leaves me with a problem, the SPY 15 min divergence is there and looks better now.
The IWM which was nearly as ugly as the QQQ crossed the bridge and completed its own 15 min positive divergence.
However the QQQ is no where near one, in fact saying it is "in line" is probably overly generous.
I like to see multiple timeframes all synced up and pointing in the same direction, but even more important is that all the averages are doing the same. I've even checked the leveraged NDX longs and they look just like the Q's above, the only saving grace is found in index futures.
Otherwise credit performed as it should today, but didn't stun, it didn't post a strong leading divergence, both HYG and JNK were at least in line, JUNK credit a little better, High Yield looked a little less enthusiastic, but not running in horror as it usually does when its spooked.
As mentioned the USD/JPY was the engine we were looking for and it did its work today.
As posted toward the close, intraday late day trade peeled away from price exposing a negative divergence in the 1 to 2 min timeframes, normally that would mean early weakness tomorrow followed by afternoon strength, however with all of the market problems, it's hard to say what was effected by what, in any case, as you can see in the SPY, it wasn't that big of a deal.
As I pointed out earlier today, HYG's very thin, unsupported reversal to the upside finally got some 3C backing behind it today, it also showed the same 1 and 2 min charts as the SPY above.
As for Precious Metals, there wasn't much change from today's earlier update, except SLV's divergence is worsening, it stretches now from 3 min, 5, 10, 15, 30 and even showing up on a 60 min chart.
GLD added more to the 30 min leading negative today...
GDX/NUGT/DUST didn't see any major changes today, but DUST's 15 min chart did catch my eye, I almost wish I had opened an equity long position here or short NUGT/GDX would be the same effect.
Beyond that, it's pretty hard to make anything of internals or market breadth when it was for all intents and purposes, a market half-holiday.
Unless today's bonanza in the market had more to it than meets the eye, I don't see any reason to veer away from current expectations for a market bounce that has clearly started and at some point shorting in to that bounce, it's just a bit frustrating today when you're blind to half the market and you can't be sure what you can trust with the other half.
I suppose I'll be watching futures closely tonight to see if anything interesting pops up unless they shut down too.
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