Thursday, August 15, 2013

Market Update- Transition

We are seeing some transition in the market, it's still not enough to cause me to consider any new positions for short term trades, the main difference now is that the SPY is coming around and the 2 min charts are adding to the intraday positives.

 Even the SPY 1 min wasn't positive like this earlier so this is gaining some ground.

Now the 2 min chart is RECENTLY leading, almost all of the averages look the same, to me it looks like the right side of an inverse H&S is seeing increased short term accumulation, I still don't know that I'd risk anything here yet.

Some other developments include Index Futures, specifically ES (SPX futures) going positive on a 5 min chart whereas earlier the best we could get was 1 min charts, but it is ONLY in ES.

 ES 1 min

ES 5 min now positive adding some credibility to what's going on near the gap lows.

 NQ 1 min only is positive

The same with TF (Russell 2000).

As for developments in the other major averages:

As mentioned the 2 min charts are seeing a strong leading positive divergence so this may be the first decent signs of migration of the divergence through longer timeframes, it's evident in the Q's IWM and DIA.

Most timeframes after that in the 3-5 min timeframes are in line, some slightly better, some slightly worse, I think the only way the averages put in any short term bottom here that is stable enough to take a position on is if they get more time down in the range.

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