Thursday, August 15, 2013

VIX, VXX, VIX Futures

I have been posting accumulation in VIX Futures for at least a week on the 60 min chart, the last few nights I've shown it getting closer intraday which makes a move more likely like last night's VIX Futures charts in the "Daily Wrap" which showed the 60 min chart joined by the 15 min and 5 min suggesting some move was imminent, but even before that, in this post yesterday VIX Futures Seeing Some Changes I showed what was a significant change in short term character as long term charts are already showing significant accumulation, this is one of the few sets of charts that REALLY stood out yesterday, I'd encourage you to look at the post just so you can see the change in character as "Changes in character leads to changes in trends".

This is today's update for intraday VXX, UVXY, XIV, and VIX Futures, there's a significant difference in today's charts vs. yesterday's, I fear that this was the trade that was screaming as far as short term goes.

The changes today may indeed be a sign of further changes to come as VIX trades opposite the market so if the market averages keep moving as they have been this morning and the VXX / VIX futures see more deterioration, all of the sudden we have a much stronger case for the market bounce.

AGAIN, for comparison, this is yesterday's charts of VIX related assets, the change in character yesterday was extreme and it gives a reference point for where these assets are today. I strongly encourage you to at least take a quick look at the charts from yesterday.


 VXX 1 min shows part of yesterday's strength although without today's action you can see much more clearly what a change in character VIX futures underwent.

The 2 min chart today is not staying in line, it's turning toward a negative divergence which confirms the market averages 2 min charts turning toward positive divergences.

 VXX 3 min is in line, but so are most market averages so thus far they tend to confirm and suggest the short term is still on for a bounce, we are very early in the confirmation process, we couldn't get it yesterday and you saw what happened today so I'm inclined to wait for solid evidence.

 UVXY's 1 min is showing a clear negative on today's pop higher.

XIV 2 min which trades opposite VXX and UVXY and WITH the market averages is showing 2 min positives much like market averages lending more confirmation and credibility to those positive charts that are in place now.

 This is one of the VIX futures charts posted in last night's "Daily Wrap", it's a 5 min. We already had and will continue to have the long term 60 min chart positive, the 15 min chart was also positive in last night's post and I believe the night before, yesterday was special not only because of the intraday VXX signals, but because the short term 5 min VIX futures went positive, we can clearly see the result of that action yesterday.

This is the intraday 1 min chart of VIX Futures showing short term distribution so this also confirms short term positive divergences on the market averages.

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