Basically the market is doing exactly what was expected as spelled out in several posts, but particularly this one yesterday. The short term intraday action looked like it will pull back while the longer charts in the 3-10 min range which are the ones suggesting a bounce and the evidence of that started appearing late Tuesday, still look good for a move higher, essentially that same pattern of the last two days with weakness on the open and a move higher from a.m. lows.
I would say we are transitioning more to the bounce now so that pattern is likely to break up a bit and probably look stronger than the last two days intraday. As I have been saying for the past week, the QQQ is my least favorite and the one I think has the most underlying weakness relative to the other averages.
IWM intraday chart was telling us this was the highest probability yesterday afternoon so it's not a surprise, whether you took positions off at the open or not is up to you and I would not fault anyone either way.
IWM 5 min is the stronger/ longer chart and still suggests the bounce is just getting started.
QQQ 2 min was suggesting opening weakness (meaning of the open, not the overnight gap).
The next longer QQQ chart still looks stronger, but it is probably my least favorite at this point and why I didn't chose a position there (I went with SPX and IWM instead).
SPY was VERY clear about what to expect in early action.
However the 5 min chart looks like we still are just getting started here more or less.
I'm not making any initial moves right now, I'm going to let the dust settle, see where things stand and decide after that, but you can see why I was working so fat to take advantage of yesterday with so many different positions.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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