Trade Ideas Update

This is not an easy decision, we're getting the same pattern as yesterday and the day before, in fact I'll just copy and paste what I said this morning, it's most accurate...

"the pattern has been losses in the morning to the intraday low and a rally off that low. If that pattern holds, it would make sense to take gains on the gap up and look to re-enter the same longs as the market pulls back to a.m. lows"

The main issue is the market is and has, as suggested above, been strengthening off the a.m. lows, it's to the point in which it's not giving any strong signals that it will pullback once more intraday as that would be the best entry, but on the other hand we don't want to buy at elevated prices, especially if you are thinking of using options AND THE ONLY REASON I MENTION OR USE THEM IS BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THE PROFIT POTENTIAL IS WORTH ALL OF THE WORK AND MARKET RISK. If I saw this as a strong area that would last for a 2-week swing, then I'd feel differently, but the market is stronger than yesterday.

My only solution at this point unless we get a clear pullback signal, would be to use leveraged long ETFs of the major averages, whether 2 or 3 x leveraged, that way the timing issue that options have is not as big of a deal and the draw down if we do get the pullback is not that big of a deal vs. options.

There could be a hybrid trade in which part of it is long equity/ETFs and if the pullback comes, juice the profit potential with some options. By the time I get through this post I may have a signal, but I have to show you all the charts to give you the picture and outlook. The TICK chart is invaluable here.

SPY

 The 5 min chart of the SPY may be the most important chart of all of these because it shows the weakness of that last run up last week, VERY WEAK and this is the overall tone of the market, this is the prize that is most important.

It also shows the "Bounce" and puts that in perspective next to the weakness so you should be able to see, whatever price does, however strong it may appear, there's an insane amount of weakness in the market and that must not be forgotten for a moment.

A closer look at the 5 min just to give you an idea of the divergence and where accumulation is taking place.

 The 2 min chart  is here because it's showing you EXACTLY what I said yesterday and this morning, EARLY TRADE WILL BE WEAKNESS, after that it's the lows of the day that will see the stronger accumulation and there it is as plain as day.

3 min chart, again, look where the accumulation is occurring, smart money does not chase, they are buying the lows.

 The 1 min chart is showing strength after the a.m. lows,  the point here is there's no sign of an intraday pullback, although I highly suspect it, it's not there yet.

QQQ

 2 min shows weakness on the open and early today, strength at the lows,  no real sign of a pullback.

 3 min clearly shows where the weakness is and strength, no sign of a PB

5 min chart is positive then in line, Q's are showing the worst relative strength, but still respectable for a trade.

IWM

 This 15 min chart which is zoomed in tight, showed no hint of anything other than weakness yesterday, today it is closer to in line, it's not a positive divergence, but stronger.

If you are looking at the big picture here, you'll notice again how weak the last run last week was and even for a decent bounce moving forward, there's very little strength compared to that weakness. If you don't know how to interpret that, I'm not sure I can add much to it. Put bluntly, any market strength in price is almost laughable, yes we can trade it, but if you don't know what to do with that price strength, you shouldn't be trading. I don't say that to insult anyone, I say it because you have an area of distribution right next to an area of accumulation and the difference is STRIKING.

10 min basically the same

This is what I said to look for yesterday, this is what I said to look for pre-market

, I include it only so you can see what the 3C signals said, what happened and what happened with underlying flows from smart money.

 DIA

 Again that strength, little sign of a pullback

1 min chart the same.

This is where the NYSE 1 min TICK chart is invaluable, look for a break of the channel.