Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Closing Thoughts

Other than the price pattern "W" or not, it doesn't really matter, I think we are still on track for the set ups described earlier both for XLF and GDX as well as other assets which should be the move needed for the trending position set ups.

A short squeeze in the Most Shorted Russell Stocks sent the IWM up, I'm glad I took out the puts as they are nice and green already, but I expect I'll be closing them soon, like tomorrow.

The divergences will need a little work, but the basics of what I laid out for say GDX, that still remains,  XLF as well and it's coming close in price to reaching that goal, we need to verify and that's a short term long position.

SPY Arbitrage hasn't worked all day, it has actually been negative, it's the Russell Short squeeze that moves the Russell and the other averages just drafted it.

CONTEXT has about doubled (negative) in points since early this morning to be in the -30 to -35 area.

I'm going to check Leading Indicators in to the close, but the way TLT moved, the lack of movement most of the day in VXX and no movement in HYG is why the SPY Arb was so negative today. VXX is seeing a bid now that the IWM is looking so ugly.

I may have to move some of the potential entry points and check out some other assets, but I think the plan that we were looking at this morning, which I would say was, "If I'm going to take the risk of being long, the market needs to give an exceptional entry and signal". The IWM's or Russell's short squeeze just delayed that a bit.

I'll get back to you on Leading Indicators, but I don't expect any surprises.

The fact TLT was starting to lose upside momentum made perfect sense as it is acting a flight to safety asset (switched overnight like gold a week or so back) and if money is coming out of flight to safety, it's going to risk.

I'm a little impatient as well as many of you are, but there's no point in getting involved in a position out of boredom.

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