Market Update

I'm getting a little bored too, but I'd rather be bored than entering positions that are potentially dangerous.

First I want to show you "WHY" it's dangerous to get caught up in short term trade and making short term assumptions based on price only and the ridiculous Financial Media headlines.

The SPX/SPY.

 So we have last week's F_O_M_C meeting and the financial media, "The F_E_D shocks the market, NO TAPER, SPX MAKES ALL TIME NEW HIGH!!!", which is suppose to be good news for bulls according to conventional wisdom, my first thought was as you probably know, "What are they so afraid of and is the market going to be even more afraid as it tries to guess?"

First unless you were betting against the taper which few people were, you weren't long and didn't catch the upside move. Second even if you did, if you didn't sell that day (especially with options), you watched your gains melt away, possibly in to losses. Those who did chase and buy the knee jerk reaction are at losses no matter what because there was no follow through, only a move down.

The most important part though of this 60 min chart is the 3C move in to the F_O_M_C statement, what did smart money do and do in HUGE size?

So price, rushing to judgment based on a day or several days of trade and blindly accepting conventional wisdom can get you in to some real trouble. This is why all decisions made here are made using objective data with the most objective interpretation of that data as possible which includes multiple sources of unrelated or uncorrelated confirmation.


The market today... The danger here is that the F_O_M_C day was enough distribution and they don't need more, but that takes some fast trading, the HFTs may have done well, but I'd think the rest of the crowd would need the "reversal process", but looking at the move Wednesday, a strong case can be made that it was the timing flag, a head fake move which we see just before a reversal. It's for these reasons I'm trying to be very careful, as sure as I can be about any positioning.

 SPY 1 min is not as bad as the IWM, but it wasn't as bloated either, but it is bad.

The case for the upside move I've been talking about this week, really since late Friday is really mostly right here on this 2 min chart. It's like the market is teetering on the ledge and there's this case, but a weak case for some upside that would be great for entries/add to positions, etc.

 This 30 min chart would be the "Head Fake" case for the SPY, it really DOESN'T need anything else, but for most of the market, they usually have a reversal process, but distribution in this market didn't start with the F_O_M_C last Wednesday, I have interviews with some of the biggest private equity managers who have been (Quote", "Selling everything that isn't nailed down for the last 16 months"

That may sound like hyperbole to you and I when we can open and close a position in 2 minutes, but for their size, it can take nearly 2 years to put a position together, at that size they aren't able to just turn on a dime. This is partly why we've been seeing distribution so long, it's not a matter of anything other than they are moving out in massive size, as in this bull move since 2009 is done, the distribution is bound to be much larger than any other time since 2008.

 IWM 1 min, you already saw this.

IWM futures intraday

QQQ intraday not looking great

The QQQ distribution 30 min in to the F_O_M_C. I don't know, maybe the F_E_D threw the retail crowd off with the no taper and did the banks a favor and let them sell in to the move, 

The F_E_D would rather give the banks the market's money than theirs in a bailout.

NASDAQ Futures intraday

I'm still looking at the major market analysis as well as individual position analysis and  a lot of those individual positions are still just a hair away from a great entry, so they still need that move.