Tuesday, September 24, 2013

IWM Follow Up

We've been talking about this move up the last couple of days and looking for certain things, but for the market, all they need is the move up, all they need is the higher prices and demand. I may be wrong on entering the IWM early rather than waiting for what looked like the best set up, but I can always exit the position and likely still have a gain.

The IWM in particular is bothersome to me because the intraday divergences are so close to the longer ones that were to cap any upside move, in other words, it's just looking very dangerous right now (for longs).

 IWM 1 min is seeing a nasty negative divergence, that makes sense though if the average is simply being lifted by a short squeeze.

 The 3 min chart has migration, it's failing. Whether the IWM comes back to do what I hoped we'd see for a good set up or whether it's in bigger trouble, I just don't see how it can sustain much more upside as internals fall apart.

Those charts are really close to the heavily damaged 5 min chart so intraday is very close to linking up with something a lot more serious.

And the 15 min chart is that something a lot more serious, this is why I've been trying to explain that any upside move is almost the equivalent of noise, sure we can make some positions work in the right scenario, but it's really best served for shorting strength (price strength or better yet, simply higher prices because "strength gives the wrong impression).

The TF / Russell 2000 intraday futures look as bad as the IWM, so this isn't a coincidence or a 1-off bad 3C chart.

The most shorted r3K stocks in red are actually losing their momentum, I can see it just from years of looking, but put a Rate of Change on the Index and you'll see it making lower highs and the R3K is starting to roll.

I think if you are wanting to participate, but use an ETF, there's SRTY (3x short the R2K) or TWM, 2x short the Russell 2000.

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