Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Opening Update

As suspected late afternoon, the 1 min divergence did develop overnight as I posted in the updated futures late last night and kept going through the European session and the US open.

The initial gaps up don't look all that impressive after the Nikkei and SHCOMP finished lower last night and I don't see any thing in the way of news driving them, they just started late yesterday and my guess is today is the last day any risk on position can be taken before the market sits back and waits to see what Bernie and co. do tomorrow.

It's a little hard to judge the strength of a divergence that was formed largely in the overnight session, except to acknowledge that it had little choice but to form in the low volume overnight session, until we can see it on regular hours charts, it will be difficult to judge, but I'm guessing some time today we'll see it start to be unwound before the F_O_M_C tomorrow at 2 p.m.

Index futures overnight.

 ES 15 min leading overnight

NQ 15 min leading positive overnight

TF 5 min leading positive overnight.

So I'm guessing these will have a bit more strength than the opening implies, we'll see how the Leading indicators and specifically HY credit respond, a failure to respond is a damning thing for this new mini-bounce.

Gold and silver don't look that interested in following the market here, at least not like the Index averages look, so I'm again guessing this is a short (day or less) distraction before the F_O_M_C's main event tomorrow.

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