Tuesday, September 17, 2013

IWM Update

Of all of the averages today, the IWM has shown the strongest underlying performance, I've actually been at a loss to understand it until I checked in on the new indicator put together this weekend, Russell 3000 index vs. the most shorted R3K top 100 stocks, this explains the performance.

 IWM intraday chart is negative, but not like the other averages and the price performance is much better.

So I checked in on my new indicator that compares the Russell 3000 100 stocks with the highest short interest vs the R3K and what did I find?
In red is the most shorted index I created from the highest short interest R3K components vs the r3K in green, look at the near diagonal line in the red MSI , a short squeeze, beautiful.

This is what's keeping the IWEM's relative performance above others and 3C, I suspect at some point the distribution in to that squeeze will be heavy, that "might" be an area worth looking at a position.

AS ALWAYS, PLEASE DON'T FORGET THAT WITH F_E_D AND F_O_M_C EVENTS, THE INITIAL KNEE JERK REACTION WE SEE IS ALMOST ALWAYS WRONG SO DON'T PANIC OR GET OVERCONFIDENT ON THE INITIAL MOVE, CHANCES ARE IT WILL BE REVERSED, ALTHOUGHT THIS IS BEING BILLED AS THE MOST IMPORTANT F_O_M_C MEETING EVER, THERE'S THE CHANCE THE MARKET DOES AS IT MEANS TO, BUT 90% OF THE TIME THERE'S A KNEE JERK REACTION INITIALLY THAT IS WRONG.

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