Market Engines: currencies / Treasuries / Volatility / Credit

I'm looking for short term market movers to decide how I want to play issues like the IWM puts, GDX and VXX calls. I don't believe that the Syrian situation is near over, especially with Syria's ridiculous demands released this afternoon and Syria now dictating terms and timelines.

However, I can't predict the future so I have to stick with what I can see.

First in currencies...

 The AUD has some serious damage in my view, I think the pair could bounce because of what most would call an "oversold" condition in $AUD, but I don't think this is going to be any leader, it may give a day of lift, but that just keeps us in chop.

The EUR/JPY I think stands a better chance, but from looking at the Euro single currency futures, it's my view that the Euro can and likely will make further gains, but first it looks like the Euro is set up for a pullback/correction which doesn't help the carry cross above or the market. My initial guess is the Euro itself pulls back to the $1.3225 area so I don't think there's much immediate use for this pair.

The USD/JPY has support at $99 , we're right at that level.

In my view the $USD is working on a base, it's of a longer nature, perhaps even intermediate so any upside in the USD driving the carry pair higher again = chop because the $USD's completed base looks to be a ways off yet.

Finally probably the most important is that the Yen itself only has a slight pullback signal on a 5 min chart, other than that, it still has strong signals and if the Yen is strong, these other currencies would have to be stronger to be effective market moving assets.

 5 min Yen chart, this suggests the possibility (not necessarily a high probability) of a pullback, but again at best that = chop.

At the 15, 30 and 60 min chart (60 min below), we have...

A strong base in the Yen and it's just getting started. RIGHT NOW I DON'T SEE A CARRY PAIR THAT CAN HELP THE MARKET AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING FOR MOST OF THIS YEAR ON MARKET UPSIDE DAYS.

As far as the SPY Arbitrage, it's more complicated, I'll get in to 10 year (which I think are going to come down which is bullish for the market) treasuries and 30 year treasuries (which as I have shown for months, have a VERY distinct difference, the 20-30 year T's look good, the 10 years which most interest rates are set from, look bad and this is a long standing trend.

In the VERY near future, the 10 year T's look like they'll pullback,  but it's the 20+ year that is the important one for arbitrage value, the 10-year has none, all it does is suggest some probability of a TLT pullback based on the 10-year coming down.

TLT's near term pullback probabilities don't look that strong.

This is the 5 min TLT-I have to show you the longer term TLT chart, it looks very good for a long, but I don't see a great way to leverage up the trade.

The other assets, VXX which is needed for the Arb (it must move down), looks pretty good right now, this is the VIX 15 min futures.

Leading positive.

VXX 5 min looks even stronger so I just don't see it here, the last chance would be credit, specifically HYG.

 HYG 2 min is starting to fall out of sync or out from the 3C/price trend "in line" status.

The 3 min chart is as well.

These aren't huge signals, but it doesn't look like SPY Arb. is a likely engine to drive the market, right now it seems that fundamental/news is the closest thing to an engine, but that's so far that hasn't been much more than a quick knee jerk move, UNLESS THE MARKET STARTS TO DISCOUNT FEARS OVER UNCERTAINTY WITH ASSAD NOW DICTATING WHAT ISRAEL SHOULD DO, WHEN THEY'LL START MOVING (1 MINTH), ETC.

For now I'll be more paying attention to individual assets which I hate as there's not great confirmation, but that's what I'll be making trade ideas based on and management.