VXX

In going long VIX Futures with VXX calls or via the equity position using 3x leveraged Short term VIX futures, UVXY, I'm expressing a bearish market view point, even if as I said numerous times, these are short term hit and run positions. This would fit perfectly with the IWM put/short position entered yesterday.

This was yesterday's 2 p.m. VXX $14 Call position or UVXY (equity) long

This was one of the last VIX updates from yesterday

Right now the VXX Oct. $14 Calls entered yesterday are now moving to a gain.

I'm going to try to show you the charts and explain again why I trust VIX futures more than the derivative VXX or UVXY based on VIX Futures.

 VXX 1 min intraday accumulating lows of the day today

The 2 min is even more positive today than yesterday,  but remember VXX prices (not 3C signals) moving lower are part of the SPY arbitrage to support the SPY or make it move higher, in addition to VXX, TLT has to move lower and HYG higher.

It doesn't matter what the 3C charts say for arbitrage, they can't see them, but they can tell us a lot about how much or how little support any market manipulation instruments like Carry currencies or SPY arbitrage have, this lets us take the market's temperature and better ascertain where we are in the cycle, what the probabilities are, what assets are highest probabilities and to an extent, we can get some idea of timing.

 VXX 5 min with a VERY strong leading positive on a stop run below yesterday's lows this morning.

The 15 min VXX is positive here, but this isn't the kind of strong divergence nor is it the size divergence that would be needed to give us high probabilities of core short positions being likely to fire and be successful and that is what this is all about, that is why I wanted price to be in the area and why Wall St. wanted it and it allows retail to be left holding the bag as their sentiment shifts with price movement, they apparently have no foreknowledge, but rather chase and in a choppy market, that's a meat grinder that will chew up a portfolio in several trades.

 This is what I believe is the first half of a larger VXX base, a "W" type base.

I can't draw the entire base because I have no room on the right margin, but above I try to give an idea including likely concepts. The green arrows are the finished base, the red arrow is where we are right now. A move above the top of the range "W" "should" see a head fake breakout above it, this is only to hit orders and more importantly to create the downside snowball effect of a fast moving decline that again breaks support of the "W" with a head fake and creates a lot of supply to be accumulated. By the time this would be finished, our longer term 3C VXX divergences would be strong and the market negatives would be weak. As of now, this is what we want to try to align our core short positions with, we want to be in place by the time we get to the lower head fake move near the end.

Until then, we can still find some core positions, but a lot of the trade will likely be short term hit and run.

This of course is VERY early in the analysis with a LOT of very important fundamental events that can occur at any time and be very surprising, like say a US attack on Syria just as it seems the diplomatic effort was a success, Obama left that door open in saying he wanted to punish Assad and discourage other leaders from using these weapons and that was in a primetime speech just 2 days ago.

 VIX futures 1 min have been positive all morning , this is why I don't sweat moves against our positions, especially early in the day, the signals are still there so the trade probabilities are as well.

5 min VIX futures.

Even though VXX is a derivative of VIX futures, I trust VIX futures more right now just because the attempt to manipulate VXX will be strong in order to move the market via SPY arbitrage.