As per usual, my Doctor was running late again as he seems to be every time I go, but I'm back now.
There are a LOT of fundamental events occurring this morning, the largest is Syria accepting the Russian diplomatic solution, this isn't a serious solution because the Russians are allies and have a naval base in Syria, everyone knows Syria could hand over 10% of their chemical weapons stockpile and Russia would certify it as complete. We still have John Kerry with his 2-day meeting starting today. I suppose we are going to find out soon whether the Kerry comment that led to all of this was a slip of the tongue that Russia and Syria (as well as China) latched on to or if it was a face saving measure, in a way this is actually more uncertainty than we had yesterday and the market doesn't like uncertainty.
Underlying trade is only as good as the trade itself which is being changed in small ways to reflect the discounting of new fundamental data such as the Syrian / Russian plan announced this morning.
I took a quick look at the averages to see what the opening indications were, every average save for the IWM is clearly negative (1 min) as expected yesterday in to the opening hour thus far.
I still see positive divergences in VXX and some very odd or extreme readings in Capital Context.
I'll take a quick look at positions to see if there's anything that needs to be adjusted, but from what I've seen at the first quick peak, VXX moving up and IWM down (positions entered for short term trades yesterday) still looks high probability.
I of course have a number of other assets to look at including gold which seems to have taken a hit because of the lack of physical to back up the GLD ETF, crude will be important as well as currencies, VIX futures and credit as well as rates (treasuries).
I'll have any updates on immediate action that may need to be taken on specific positions first and then updates to follow, but I'm not too concerned about positions entered yesterday this early with signals looking this bad to start the day.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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