Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Market Update & VIX

I think those VIX positions are going to be doing very well, very soon.

Right now I'm more interested in what's behind door number 1, meaning the immediate moment, things can change quickly, not very often with underlying trade, but when they do, they are quick.

So far I don't see anything I'd consider a change that concerns me, however on any market movement (in this case down on a pullback move), that's where we get really important information such as, "Is the move down a pullback that is being accumulated as a pullback should or... If the answer is something other than "yes", then something has changed.

here's what the market averages look like intraday, I'll have to put up the futures separately when I have a little more time, but those 5 and 15 min charts are bothersome.

 As I said yesterday, "I have no problem holding those VXX calls", the DIA this morning hasn't shaped up at all.

Nor has the IWM

The Q's have deteriorated more

As has the SPY.

The charts I usually use as 1 of my confirmation assets are VIX based charts, even if I'm not specifically looking at a trade there, this chart below would be strong confirmation of the charts above considering the VIX /VXX move opposite the market and should have opposite 3C signals for confirmation.
 VXX 1 min added a lot to the leading positive from yesterday

The 3 min chart has already been in position, this still reflects a shorter duration move, but that doesn't mean it can't be impressive.

The 1 min VIX futures are in a negative intraday divegrence, this happens on a 1 min chart 50% of the time as a consolidation only move, basically hold the asset in place and not a pullback through price, it's a stalling tactic.

I didn't want to draw on the 5 min chart which went positive yesterday between 2 and 4 p.m. because I wanted you to see it without distraction, that's the VIX Futures, the underlying asset behind the VXX (with some slight caveats).

I'll be looking for that 1 min chart to shift to positive.



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