Tuesday, October 15, 2013

VXX / Market Follow Up

OK, so I took 1/3rd off the table with VXX, it came to a small gain of +8.5%, this isn't the reason for taking it.

A couple of posts back I mentioned a positive divegrence in the 1 min TF (Russell 2000 Futures), that has grown. There's also a small positive in the SPY and a small negative in VXX. The Q's and IWM are pretty much on track and now showing anything interesting along these lines.

Take a look...
 This is the TF 1 min chart, that's an intraday positive divegrence, this is the strongest I've found and one of only a handful.

 The 5 min TF chart still looks bad, no signs of the above on this chart.

While the SPY is leading negative, there's a small relative positive divegrence here. Normally I'd chalk this up to an intraday jiggle coming, but the leading negative would be the dominant signal.

Here's the slight negative in VXX 1 min.

Keep in mind the position size I had for VXX was well above what was originally intended so that's one aspect.

Here are the other two, I'm thinking if there's any kind of deal going on or rumors of a deal, this is likely what we'd expect to see, some cautious buying until the rumors were confirmed. I kind of doubt this is the scenario because I'd expect this to be a little more pronounced among the averages and as I said, the Q's and IWM don't show anything that would stand out on their own.

The other possibility is some end of day ramp attempt, knowing that the strong negatives are taking the market down overnight, into the close perhaps or in the a.m.

My line of thought is whichever scenario (or even if this is just meaningless noise), before the close I should either see this activity increase in which case I'd be suspicious an impending deal is going to be announced or I'd expect to see this reverse and perhaps some selling/short selling in to slightly higher levels or even at this same level if they feel the market is going to be knocked lower imminently.

SO either way, I'm either taking some risk off the table in one scenario or in the other, I'm able to add back those closed contracts at a better price or even around the same.


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