Friday, November 29, 2013

A.M. Observations

I hope everyone is getting over their tryptophan/turkey induced hangovers.

Well apparently I lost a couple hours of sleep last night just to see futures halt their move to the downside and drift laterally to slightly higher, I'm guessing some at the NY F_E_D's Open Market's Desk also lost a few hours of sleep, it almost seems like they were reading our site or just looking at the same thing we did, I can imagine the call, "Get your butt in their and stabilize futures, it's Black Friday".

Do they really think that's going to keep JC PEnny, who might as well be Woolworth from their destiny? Or perhaps JC Penny will have a good Black Friday and become the Apple Store of retailers...oh, they tried that by hiring the master mind behind the Apple Stores only to promptly fire him when he couldn't turn get lines waiting outside the store like Apple Stores....Mission impossible. With today's "Brand " society, no kids are going to be buying anything from a store that has a "Penny" in their name, at least not until hip-hop stops rapping about spilling out some of their 40 oz. for their fallen homies and starts rapping about "Soda POP".

So what were the levers to save the Futures? Well they weren't the carry pairs...
None did any better than EUR/JPY in moving lateral and the Yen hasn't done much...

15 min Yen, lateral

The Euro had a little more trouble as the former 4 AAA rated Eurozone countries has now dropped to 3 and then there was 2 as Holland was kicked out of the AAA club last night after the S&P downgraded the Netherlands, Germany and Finland are the lone two survivors.

So  what else could it be, well without all the other traditional levers not even open yet, the NY F_E_D Desk looks to be the most probable, again just like Wednesday it's not that hard when volumes are that low and I'm glad to see several of you did some homework regarding the weighting of averages and noticed how the most heavily weighted were bought on Wednesday while most everything else languished, a trick we haven't seen in a while, but it's only affordable when volumes are low and it's inexpensive to do. Before that, it was only when POMO money went straight to those stocks, better known as momentum stocks in that era of about a year and a half ago that is passed by.

What other evidence might there be? German Bunds saw a flight to safety trade a they were the only game in town open at that hour.

Asia was mixed, it seems the late hour save may have been too late for Asian markets as they were mixed.

However the China Air Defense zone was not quiet overnight as they released a statement that 7 groups of 10 Japanese fighters entered the zone today possibly accompanied by two US surveillance planes, saber rattling on.

Perhaps that's why futures still look like this and gold (that now moves opposite stocks, was up overnight off the 12 a.m. hour lows...
 ES 1 min

NQ 5 min, still unchanged, it would take heavier flows to change that divergence

And R2K futures 5 min still look the same...

We shall see, but it will be much lower volume today than Wednesday with a half day.

Watch AAPL, that will tell you what's going on with the NY D_E_D or any of the top 5 Dow Components like Visa, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Boeing (hard to believe they'd move up) and IBM.


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