Friday, November 29, 2013

Market Update

It's not like we didn't have warning. So just before the market closes, a rush out of risk assets, a rush in to protection, but all of this was clear last night and my last "Quick Market  Update"

"Even the thin intraday charts are starting to break up now in all of the averages and AAPL, I'm guessing the other index movers as well, although I haven't had a chance to check them."

Earlier I talked about the thin Facade of 1 min charts moving the market, but nothing past that, 2 min negatives.

When you look at the averages, look specifically WHERE distribution occurred before price fell, this is important to understand how smart money works, how they buy and sell.

 SPY 2 min as warned about early today.

IWM 1 min intraday, look how negative, but also where, before price moved down, this was showing the distribution and what happens when there are no more buyers of what is being sold.

 QQQ 2 min

But all of this was predictable, this is why I could enter FAZ (3x short Financials) with little worry. These 5 min + charts have been horrible, if it didn't happen today it would have happened Monday.

TF 5 min

Remember I said the NYSE TICK was +/ -750, but spending more time in the -750 area, this answers a big part of the breadth issue.

 My custom TICK Indicator just losing breadth all day

 And short term VIX futures could not be held back any longer by intraday steering divergences, protection was bid in such size that it made no sense for them to try to defend against a rise in the VIX futures.

Since this was all weight based market movement and AAPL having the most weight in the market, this is why I followed AAPL today and mentioned it in the market update and have not panicked about AAPL bearish positions.

 AAPL 1 min eventually gave out after 1 min ONLY confirmation.

As I said, it was a thin veneer of facade and behind it was trouble like this 2 min chart.

Entries like FAZ today were hold your nose and jump in, but in reality you can't get a better price with less risk so these positions that are emotionally the hardest to enter, are actually the most sensible and least risky.


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