Market Update

I'm trying to cover a lot of assets here quickly, the only real shifting variable is intraday charts or chart (1 min), damage is done on anything much longer.

Even though today is about NASDAQ COMP $4k, I'll start with the SPY as it's a good overall proxy

 SPY 1 min although zoomed tight the 1 min is in a weak intraday confirmation (green).

SPY 5m is another of the recent fast moving charts that have characterized the last week, but especially this week so far.

10 min is another, longer term there's more damage, it's the fast moving part that's nearly vertical compared to a normal (strong) negative to the left.

The QQQ intraday is inline, remember I had said this was the best looking of the averages, which is like the best choice of nothing but bad choices. Beyond the 1 min damage from last Friday on is apparent.

I showed AAPL which, make no mistake, has a lot to do with the Q's and COMP today. It seems like the market is struggling to maintain even this as the NYSE TICK range is very mellow at +/- 750, not a whole lot of directionality.

The IWM intraday 1 min was in line, at another look it's starting to deteriorate and as you've probably seen in numerous charts, there's no strength behind the 1 min chart, 3, 5, etc are all deeply leading negative.

The VXX seems to be in consolidation, although I think it may have something to do with either an arbitrage play to try to help the COMP maintain 4k as VXX is one of the 3 Arbitrage assets or perhaps just to not let anything horrific happen to the market in front of what already seems like a troubled Black Friday, something horrible like this...

Soit VIX BB Squeeze, this move would see the market make the opposite move.

Consumer Confidence isn't looking good in front of Black Friday...

Released On 11/26/2013 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2013

Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Consumer Confidence - Level 71.2  72.9  70.7  to 76.0  70.4  The temporary agreement to end the standoff in Washington did nothing to boost consumer confidence which fell further in November, to 70.4 vs October's revised 72.4. Confidence took a big hit in October, falling from September's 80.2 amid the government shutdown and budget standoff. So October was bad on the gov. shutdown, but November? This is the second miss in a row and the biggest miss of expectations in 8 months, a plunging market before Black Friday wouldn't help things much, but that is just what the VIX BB squeeze is forecasting. In looking at VXX and VIX futures, there's no horrible intraday signals, more like a holding pattern, however the very strong positive (near vertical signals ) of the past few days are still there strong as ever. Right now intraday all Index futures are seeing intraday 3C weakness, plus there's the 5/15 min charts already weak as shown since Friday. Gold looks bad on the price chart, but futures show a 5 min negative divegrence around midnight, the 30/60 min charts that saw 3C move vertically up are still there so I believe there's actually still a very strong base under gold, but just as I showed yesterday when you consider Black Friday,

Tere's now an inverse relationship between gold and the market (SPY in green), rising gold would likely mean falling market and with only a couple days before Black Friday, it seems they are trying to tie up whatever they can to maintain at least a level market and stave off a decline until BF passes.

That's CLEARLY what VIX futures look like.


However signs of trouble are already here and growing.

The +.04% gain in HYG is seeing strong distribution in to the move which IS an arbitrage asset to manipulate the market higher.

However when looking at High Yield credit, which is not correlated, it's taking another drastic fall today.

I'll have some other charts up, I want to figure out whether the market will be able to hold, with such low volume I'd think they can pull off enough tricks to get it to hold, but if it looks like it has the last several days in to the afternoon, then I may go ahead and take action, otherwise I don't want to enter new positions if we'll just be in a Black Friday, confidence holding price pattern.