MORNING MARKET UPDATE

I took a little time to compare the risk assets (Gold, $USD and Treasuries) that are QE sensitive and compare them to the SPX Futures (ES), I was a little surprised by what I found. Friday the QE sensitive assets were acting in a very "Taper-on" way vs the broad market (meaning the market is acting like the F_E_D will announce a QE taper which the market doesn't want, very soon or already has). However what I found may just be as a result of the randomness of market chop or may be something else more important, but here's a look.

 Above is a 5 min chart of the SPX with Friday's open in white and close in red, a pretty narrow range, but it was also an op-ex Friday, which means an options max pain pin was likely in effect.

It was the QE sensitive risk assets that acted VERY different (Taper On) from the stock market (Taper Off) indices except for the Russell 2000 which was down around -0.45% on the day.


*All of the charts below are an asset in green/red candlesticks vs ES (SPX e-mini futures) in purple.

 The $USDX is acting in a Taper On way, but not just Friday, since the F_O_M_C came out at the white arrow and even before. However is you look at ES's general trend since the F_O_M_C, it too has been more down than anything and also looking like it's acting in a "Taper On" mode.

Although this may just be a result of the "CHOP" we expected, it may not be.

10 Year Treasuries have been down since the F_O_M_C, ES doesn't look so different does it?

The green arrow is the start of trade for the new week yesterday.

This is the 30 year treasury and ES in purple, the white arrow is the F_O_M_C and the green arrow is the start of trade for the new week yesterday.

Here we have  gold futures vs ES

So, while Friday had a much more noticeable margin between the QE sensitive assets and the market averages, on the whole the overall trend since the F_O_M_C is really not that different, I just can't say if it's due to the randomness or seeming randomness of a choppy market or if there's something real there, I expect it has more to do with chop in the very short term and perhaps "Taper on" slightly longer term.

The Index Futures and 3C...

This is the 1 min ES overnight and in to the open, pretty much in line.

1 min NQ which had an obvious negative divegrence sending NASDAQ futures lower.

 And TF/Russell 2000 futures 1 min.

Many of the charts in the mid term are consistent with market chop as has been expected since last Thursday and even as early as Wednesday night. However when we move to a longer, stronger timeframe, it seems to give the chop it's time in the light, but doesn't seem to guarantee if for too long. 

These are the 60 min Index Futures charts.

 ES 60 min leading negative badly.

NQ 60 min leading negative acutely

TF 60 min leading negative very clearly as well.

This is the chart I posted Friday near the close of a rough concept of what market chop might look like moving forward, note the first high I drew in (orange) for today  vs. the high on the 31st.

And this is the SPY's movement thus far this morning, VERY close to the concept of market chop that I randomly drew in last Friday on the chart above this one.

I'll take a look at some other assets and see if market chop still looks to be the most probable near term movement, if so then the market still remains dangerous for shorter term trades, but it can be useful for tactical trades and short term trades.