TBT Short / TLT Long

To try to make this easier, essentially the warning about the GLD/GDX from last week looks like it is spot on, I looked at both as short term positions, but as I had said in the warning, they are for pretty aggressive traders.

TBT on the other hand looks a bit better, it has lower volatility and lower risk for a short duration position.

As you may recall, the long term TLT (20+ year Treasury) position looks good for a long term trade, however we had signals for a pullback in TLT and thus have been standing by after having closed TLT longs and even opened a TBT long which is the inverse of TLT, but 2x leveraged (like being short TLT with 2x leverage). This is a position that is probably around a swing position in duration, maybe a bit longer, however I decided to trade around it with the lower risk.

TBT long was already at a profit so that was closed as of the last post and entered as a short position which would be like a 2x leveraged long in TLT, there just isn't such an ETF with enough liquidity. The TBT short entered will be a short duration position, I can't say for sure, but I'm thinking 1-2 days) at which point it would be covered (as long as we have the signals which I'm confident we will have) and TBT long (short TLT 2x leverage) will be re-opened as TLT continues its pullback.

*In fact the bold text above fits pretty well with our

The larger picture is to let TLT pullback, hopefully to the $100-$102 area at which level it looks like an excellent longer term long position. This TLT pullback and targeted long at $100-$102 has been our position for a while, it's nothing new, but after 3-day pullback (since the F_O_M_C policy statement), it looks ready for a short term bounce before resuming its pullback.

Really none of the above is any different than the GLD/GDX/NUGT analysis from last Friday or the 2 posts today.

This "should" also help with market action in the Daily Wrap, although the broad strokes are there for you already (they haven't changed in more than a week) as shown in this post, "***Market Update".

I'll have to confirm shorter term intraday/very short duration market action, but the longer the chart in the linked post above (***Market Update) the higher the probability and stronger the move associated with that probability.

Here's the P/L for TBT and the charts for 30 year Treasuries (similar to TLT) and TBT...

The P/L=+3.16% which is not what the trade was intended for, but I'll be coming back to it.

30 Year Treasury Futures (which is similar to TLT "20+ year treasuries")

 As you can see on the description of the symbol "/ZB", this is the daily chart of 30 year Treasuries...
with a very strong positive divegrence, this is similar to the long term strong positive in TLT and the reason I'd like to be long TLT around $100 on a pullback for a long term position.

The 4 hour chart shows the same accumulation and a pullback like TLT.

At the 30 min chart there's a positive divegrence that suggests a bounce in TLT, this among other reasons like TBT and TLT charts is why I closed the TBT long (2x short 20+ year treasuries) and decided to short TBT instead so essentially it is like a 2x long TLT position for a very short duration bounce). I fully intend on returning to the TBT long until TLT is in the $100-$102 area.

 This is the 5 min chart of the same that looks ready for a bounce after 3 days of moving down.

This is the TBT 60 min chart, it shows the reason why I like TBT for a decent TLT pullback and the reason for being long TBT over a longer term (TLT pullback)

 This is the 30 min chart and you can see the positive divegrence for the long entered, but recently a little 3C softness.

 The 15 min chart is in line

And the 3 min chart is showing a pullback in TBT is likely, this is reason for selling TBT and going short for a short duration trade.

This is the sme on the 2 min chart.

I expect a short term TBT short on a TLT bounce before TLT returns to a larger pullback.

Essentially this is no different than Gold if TLT was gold, the same pullback idea, the same very short term bounce idea and long term bullish idea.