Monday, November 4, 2013

USO December $35 Call Follow Up

From Friday, a USO Dec. $35 Call position was opened. These are the charts of USO from Friday...

And the $USD which has a Historical Legacy Arbitrage that most are familiar with as oil is a $USD denominated asset, meaning the lower the $USD goes, the higher oil must go in response or vice versa. I also thought there was a good chance for gold to have a near term bounce that I said may be "Misleading", this too could be effected by a change in the $USD, but for now lets look at oil and the $USDX.

 This is the $USDX 15 min chart with a negative divegrence after being up since 10/27

This is the near term 5 min chart (better for timing) also going negative on the $USDX suggesting lower $USD prices to come, which should push oil higher.

 This is the 15 min Crude futures with a building relative positive divegrence and...

The oil 5 min chart with a building positive divegrence so I do like oil at least for a move using those December $USO calls.

I still like the December $35 USO calls at this area and think they'll see some decent upside, I do think a 2x leveraged ETF (oil) can do fairly well too.

The $USD movement could have some obvious positive effects on gold as shown short term last week so we'll check in to those as well.


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