Wednesday, November 20, 2013

PCLN Core Short / Trading Short on Open?

PCLN has done EVERYTHING we've wanted to see, EVERYTHING, this is what you call a, "Trade that comes to you"...

So when do you enter or add to? I think a good case can be made for tomorrow morning, I'll show you why.

First we'll need some cooperation from the market overnight or in to the open because I doubt PCLN does it itself, when I update and look at internals I'lll be able to better asses the situation, but I'm thinking the Dominant Price/Volume relationship among the averages will not be Close Down/Volume Down , which has led to the kind of market action we have seen the last several days, but to a 1-day oversold at Close Down/Volume up. This is not the averages themselves so you can't answer that question, it is all of the component stocks that make up each of the averages, we are looking for a majority of stocks all in the same price/volume relationship (of 4) and to be dominant in all of the major averages, I think we get it tonight which would lead to a 1-day oversold status.

 The $1145 level was the area we were looking for a breakout above, this is based on market behavior alone, the head fake move, the positive 3C divergences to push that move were just a bonus confirming the probability of our expectations.

I don't see enough 3C support in PCLN alone for it to make the move I'd like to see so hopefully the market will do it for PCLN.

 This 2 min chart shows beyond a doubt that the expected head fake / false breakout >$1145 was in fact a false breakout as there's nothing byt pure distribution as you can see.

 Other charts have already been established as negative

60 min definitive negative change in character.

Here's where we get the set up.
Today's candle is first,  a breakout above the $1145 level which is what we wanted yesterday, it's the reason that I said I thought PCLN would be a good 1-day call option yesterday.

The Doji Star that has gapped up is a bearish Doji Evening Start reversal candle and the increased volume makes this candle about 2x more reliable.

Now, the perfect confirmation candle for PCLN would need a gap up in the morning and a close lower just like we predicted on Friday for Monday's action and just as it happened. The actual pair would look like this...
The second to last candle would be today in the IWM above and the last candle would be tomorrow for PCLN, this would be the bearish engulfing/confirmation candle.

If I saw a gap up in PCLN in the morning, I'd almost add or initiate new positions (short) right then and there as the probabilities would be very high that this would be the result.

I'll of course try to verify any such move if it happens, but that's the perfect set up and PCLN has just been doing EVERYTHING we've been looking for.


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