Waiting for the DUST to Clear

There are a lot of mixed signals, apparent attempts to put together some accumulation of the knee jerk lows, but in other places (the longer charts where heavy institutional activity takes place), there's also some very large distribution.

I'm looking for something that has an edge, something that stands out, right now it's knee-jerk-ish although it seems the market has every right to move down on those minutes.

However, they often will try to get a bounce to sell short or sell in to, smart money doesn't chase the market.

For instance when QE3 was announced, the market went down for several months, but then they accumulated the November 16th lows and it has been up since, the point is, it seems they are doing one thing when they are actually doing another.