Wednesday, January 15, 2014

FX and Market Update

I wanted to get at least something out there real quick.

First, what this is all about (refer to my post last night and look at the ES vs USD/JPY 1 min chart for yesterday, that's the fuel/correlation), that means the Yen again is the first place to look, although we don't really have to based on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY this morning and even overnight.

 Yen 5 min, the 5 was holding up yesterday, now it's going positive

The 30 min held up well and stayed better than in line, now its positive as well.

 Take a look at the proportion and patterns in the Yen 15 min, just about perfectly scaled and divergent.

The USD/JPY really didn't do as much as I would have thought overnight and from where we started Monday, the market is ahead of itself, but that's volatility, extreme swings like a pendulum.

 Again that same price character this time in the EUR/JPY and we see how it has come along since marking it yesterday, not good for equities.

The VIX futures are positive and being bid, VXX / UVXY...

This is the QQQ on the open this morning, above the range, but not a great start. SQQQ would be my long trade to play the Q's when it looks air tight.

QQQ 3 min

QQQ 5 min, that's a problem, no confirmation, strongly implies a volatile dead cat just as thought.

IWM as I am paying attention to this one (SRTY long)...

This was in line ALL day yesterday 1 min until the close, that negative has carried on this morning, again it's a matter of being above the ranges, HF!

Point!

And again, no confirmation, in fact not even close.

So at least you have some idea of what I'm looking at, VXX divergences are moving fast as well as averages.

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