Wednesday, January 15, 2014

URRE Update

One of our other long (long term positions) URRE is also making a nice move out of what I'd call a "sloppy" ascending triangle, but fairly big which is part of a much bigger base. Because URRE's volume is so spotty on intraday charts (take a 1 min chart for instance, there are a lot of bars with no trade at all), the intraday charts are impossible to get much from, it's the longer term charts that make URRE as a position (core long) clear as to why I like it so much as a long term play.

So far we have about a 8+% gain today, that's about exactly the same as the gain in the position, but like MCP, UNG and other long term long positions, URRE is still well within a much larger base or stage 1 which is known for volatility, only stage 3 is more volatile, stage 2 mark up is where it becomes a more trending trade and that's where 80% of the meat is to be found as well as a much less hectic position to watch over, basically throw it in the Trend Channel and forget (not literally, but no need to watch it intraday every day).

 The daily ascending triangle I mentioned, the rule "use " to be a break before the apex is complete, usually about 2/3rds through the triangle represented a very strong breakout.

Volume is noot spiking 4x average or anything like that, but this is the subtle art of volume analysis and it's the small things that others miss that are important like the fact volume is up on the day already at the midpoint, it doesn't need to be 400%, it just needs to be up.

 The daily chart gives you some idea of how large the base is and a lot of you know how long we've been watching and/or trading in this one. This looks like a large double bottom is completing with a breakout to stage 2 around $5.00-$6.00 because the neck line is slanting, if we go with the neckline it's about $5, if we go with resistance it could be $5.60 or $6, the important part is the second side of the base has a stronger leading positive and this is a daily chart so that's about as strong of a signal as you get (other than some multi-day).

The hourly has been positive building the right side of the base as well.

Intraday I have a lot of confirmation from 5 min up so I don't think there's anything that needs to be done unless you are still putting together a position or are interested in one, if you already have a core long there, then I think it's basically, just keep an eye on it and let it do its thing.

Nice move though.

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