Market Update

I'm going to use the Index averages as it's a faster (fewer charts) to give an idea and a look at the Carry Crosses. I would normally say to keep an eye on the TICK for early warning, but it's really sloppy, I can't identify any trend there, actually it kind of makes sense as the averages are trend-less or lateral.

The Yen futures were holding up better than expected yesterday and the 15/30 min charts were in line which was good rather than be leading negative. Today they are leading positive, both 15 and 30 as well as 5 min.

There's a big disconnect in the carry crosses and the ES price correlation.

 /TF Russell 2000 Futures leading negative, thus the lateral trend as the upside momentum has faded.

/ES S&P E-mini futures are in essentially the same shape.

And /NQ NDX100 futures...

This is the intraday /VX VIX Futures, they have been gaining since yesterday and we have positive action in VXX / UVXY short term VIX futures as well.

This is the intraday IWM that was PERFECTLY in line all day yesterday right until the close, big change there and that's why I chose the IWM for a PUT.

Intraday there is that resistance range, head fake moves are like all other moves, fractal so there's a chance of taking out an obvious resistance area.

 This  is the USD/JPY (candlesticks) vs ES (purple), note the relative performance of the FX pair vs ES, the support is not there that' you'd expect to see. We can go in to why later, but I think you can probably guess.

Compare the intraday correlation YESTERDAY between the two and then today below...

Not as much of an intraday correlation, all in all lower as you saw on the first chart.

The EUR/JPY isn't helping, in fact it's worse because it's not just below where it should be, it has started the turn down.

While price action, ES, SPX, whatever may seem most important right now or always, the carry positions are where the greatest risk is to the pros, thus what they are doing is exceptionally important.

This is a bounce in EUR/JPY from that turn down., you can see it on the 15 min chart above.

However as it has met resistance (red line) note how Es and the other averages have ranged sideways.

I'll let you know if I see anything, but from this point, I think a change could come very quickly, I'd usually say "Watch the NYSE intraday TICK", but as I mentioned, it's sloppy, but still, if you see something out of the ordinary, a big candle down or up or an extreme at +1250 or greater or -1250 or greater, those will be warning flags.