Major Volatility

I really would have thought I'd be able to move a trading portfolio much more directionally by now, for instance leaning long or short, but it's really kind of split, like a hedge which is fine considering the wild card event.

However, just in looking at the Index futures or the averages across a number of timeframes, I'm waiting because it looks like there's more than 1 or 2 set ups in the works, for instance the initial move off the F_O_M_C may look like a knee jerk reaction, but it may just be setting up a slightly longer knee jerk reaction before we finally return to our main trend which is the most probable over a longer period which is bearish, thus if there's confusion among other timeframes, I want to stick with the highest probability and as such positions like SPXU and/or FAZ are still open, but I have a feeling they will probably shift and offer new opportunities on volatility post F_O_M_C at 2 pm today.

For instance, the Index futures look pretty consistent through multiple timeframes, so take a look.

(Since the charts are so similar, I chose the best representation of each trend/timeframe among the 3 major Index futures, ES/SPX NQ/NDX and TF/Russell 2000)

 The short term 1 min intraday charts are largely positive to different degrees, but that's the intraday trend, this is ES 1 min

NQ 1 min

TF 1 min looking very much like a head fake move to the downside (stop run) as we often see before a trend reversal . The near term trend would have been the 2.5 day lateral base and the reversal would be to the upside after stops are hit just below the range's support.

ES 5 min, we can see the lateral trend that we expected since Friday's chart indications and now we can see that range and some positive divergences at the bottom of the range as you'd expect.

 ES 15 min seems to be in line, almost perfectly, the short term charts like 1-5 min should migrate to this longer one so if they continue positive, they should move this one to a more positive stance rather than in line.

TF 30 min shows the negative divergence that sent prices lower and then the larger volume Friday as if we hit a short term capitulation event on the downside, which was part of the reason I suspected we'd see a lateral / sideways trend/base and there are clear positive leanings here.

 As with the averages, many of the positive timeframes are in the intermediate area like 1, 15 and even 30 min, but short term.

This  ES 1 hour is VERY clear on the negative divergence sending prices lower and the leading positive divegrence is even more clear at the sideways base this week.  Remember, no matter how strong this leading positive divegrence is, the cap on the move is the accumulation amount/time. 2.5 days is respectable, we can get a strong move from that, but it is not a game changer as far as core positions or our strategic view.

 At the high probability/long term and strongest signals, this 4 hour TF chart is VERY clear about the distribution event where I've been pointing it out.

And the TF 1-day chart is also clear about the underlying distribution trend and a very strong one, again the timeframe of the diveregnce is the cap on it and at nearly a year, this can support a HUGE bear/down trend.

If you recall what the Breadth charts look like, they are nearly at the EXACT same spot where they really turn sour and we see more and more stocks falling among all NYSE stocks despite the rising averages. I've explained how this can happen numerous times (how the market can rise with a majority of stocks actually declining or performing worse).

So I also need to look at the multiple timeframes and be aware that it should create near term volatility and the F_O_M_C today is the PERFECT instrument to create that volatility. This chould allow for tactical signals to become clear as we move forward.