Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Quick Market Update

NYSE TICK is negative. The 1-2 min and some 3 min charts of the averages are negative. Around 3-5 min they go positive so this suggests a pullback. MANY of the shorts (TRADING) that I'll be closing will likely be at better prices over the next 30-60 mins, but I need to just get it done so I can focus on other issues.

As I said earlier, the IWM and QQQ look the best for a bounce, the SPY is my least favorite.

Financials are also my least favorite (for a bounce) among industry groups and the SPX has the most exposure to financials. The VIX is outperforming its correlation and although I'd expect it to move opposite the market if the market bounces as I suspect, I think it will have very poor relative performance and as such, in my view does not make for a good trading short.

For a bounce I prefer small caps over Large caps (thus the TNA long already in position) which also means the DIA is among my least favorite as well. I also prefer Tech to Financials.

So IWM/QQQ/small cap and Tech look pretty good for bounce longs.

XLF / Financials continue to look great as a group I want to short in to on any price strength (bounce).

I'm going to start shifting some positions now, but I will leave FAZ (long) open as I just don't like the looks of finicals and the 3C charts (if I looked at FAZ alone) do not support closing the long position (Short Financials).

REMEMBER, the F_O_M_C / F_E_D initial knee jerk, it can be very strong, it's almost always very wrong and that can take a few hours or less to figure out or a couple of days.

I SUSPECT, there will be a knee jerk to the upside (perhaps not the immediate reaction). In fact if we get the market bounce I suspect we will, I think it will look like the F_O_M_C knee jerk reaction and then that should fade as we short strength.



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