QQQ P/L and Possible Trade

I just closed the Feb QQQ $87 Puts. This position was at a loss, but not so much that I thought it was unlikely to recover so I've kept it hanging around, but with a Feb. expiration and what looks like a head fake move this morning BELOW the range for the NDX, even if the Q's fall significantly (after a bounce) before the expiration, I doubt I'd ever be able to close the position at as favorable a position as now considering the time decay.

I'm seriously considering a QQQ long like TQQQ (3x leveraged long NASDAQ 100) as a TRADING POSITION, not a core/Trend position, those I want to leave short.

However I have SQQQ (3x short QQQ) among trading positions. The initial idea AS OF MONDAY, was to leave the trading positions in place (shorts) and hedge with a few select longs such as the TNA and URTY longs added Monday. The idea being the long hedges would be hitch hiking longs that acted as hedges as well, on the way up (during a market bounce) I'd close those out at a profit and then add some more shorts in to the remaining price strength (bounce) and let the longer term positions (short) take over.

However, with the trading positions, I'm now considering taking profits on some short positions and trying to trade around this bounce (that I believe is coming) and close SQQQ (long) and replace it with TQQQ. I haven't decided yet, but this morning's move (at least in the Q's) looks a lot like the head fake move we see just before a reversal. You know that I expected a range to build  this week as of Friday afternoon, so a head fake/stop run move like the head fake it appears we just witnessed would be right on cue as I expected a 2.5 day base (Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday until the F_O_M_C at 2 p.m.) so the timing looks perfect. 

The reservations? Well the F_O_M_C is a wild card event and as far as I'm concerned, every market indication except the averages actual price trend, all appear to show us on the right side of the top, meaning we have topped and should be moving down as the macro trend despite the bounce I expect.

Last time I tried to cut too closely around the fat with AAPL at its top, I missed a great short set up (closed it rather) to try to chase a small bounce and reestablish the core short and then watched AAPL plunge -45% or 390 points over the next 8 months when I had perfect short positioning.

The other side of that coin is the core shorts (trend/long term) are still in and will remain in position, I'm only looking at moving around assets in the TRADING portfolio. I'll let you know soon.

The P/L for the puts and QQQ charts.

 The positive divegrence I said prices were falling into this morning before the bell and right into it.
ES 1 min

NQ 1 min also shows the same, prices falling this morning in the Index futures, but being accumulated, this would appear to be a PERFECT head fake set up and WE SEE HEAD FAKE MOVES ABOUT 80% OF THE TIME BEFORE A TREND REVERSAL, even from lateral to up or down.

NQ 15 min in line/confirmation (green) of the downtrend and then the predicted lateral move/small base and the small negative divegrence that started in FX last night that would send the Index averages down to the lower end of the base where it would be probable we'd get a head fake move (under the recent range lows.

QQQ 1 min 3C chart with a head fake at the yellow arrow in to a positive divergence

5 min QQQ from negative that sent prices lower to the positive that has formed in the predicted lateral move which I thought/think is a small base.

 QQQ 10 min and the head fake area.

QQQ 15 min confirmation of the downtrend and now a leading positive divegrence, this is a significant short term trading signal that suggests a move higher, it's nearly perfect that this lines up with the F_O_M_C, it WOULD APPEAR THE MARKET IS AWARE OF A F_E_D LEAK AND WILL SEE EITHER A KNEE JERK BOUNCE HIGHER OR A MOVE HIGHER AFTER AN INITIAL NEGATIVE KNEE JERK, IN EITHER CASE IT SEEMS THERE'S A LEAK THE MARKET IS AWARE OF JUDGING BY THE 3C CHARTS IN TO THE F_O_M_C.