Quick EOD Update

I will of course take another look, but finally got around to Leading Indicators.

As I mentioned before, the 5 year Treasuries were sold a bit today, likely a rotation to risk, I'm not sure about the T-Notes that were going negative in yield yesterday as a safe haven rotation, I need to check those.

The SPY Arbitrage is now negative -.$.30 and CONTEXT is almost negative as it has moved down to $3.93 and that's all on Es gains, not the model moving up or down, which I think has more to do with carry than anything.

HYG was seen underperforming late afternoon, I need to check 3C, but there was distribution as of this morning. VXX had been underperforming its SPX correlation early in the day, but improved as the day wore on and as you know, VIX futures were going positive intraday, VXX/UVXY has good 3C signals today as well, it did look like they were trying to set up a closing ramp, like the last 5 minutes or so, but apparently that fell apart, you can see it in VXX's late day down draft and a push lower in TLT as HYG looks like it's almost out of the game.

I just checked the 3C charts for HYG, YES, INDEED, they continue selling in to price strength and there are VERY clear negative divergences in to the 11:24 and 3:24 highs, the distribution is unmistakeable.

TLT's price action today seemed to hold up a lot better that the 3C charts so I think TLT will come down which is fine with me as I've been waiting a long time for a long position there as a core/trending long. As I have mentioned for the last 6 months of watching TLT for the right position, the 10 year bond is a totally different ball game. If HYG falls and VXX gains or holds, TLT can pullback and cause no Arbitrage activation. By the way, I'm looking to leverage up TLT without using options so I decided I'd use TBT short. Speaking of which, there is still an open TBT long position which I'll leave in place until TLT pulls back and is ready for a long, then I'd close TBT long and go short TBT.

High Yield Credit which strangely held up pretty well yesterday took a bit of a dive today, first lower on the day then made a lower low in to the close (3:45) so that's interesting as well being it DOES NOT have the correlation and arbitrage value that High Yield Corporate Credit has.

ES was intraday positive in to the close, NQ was negative and TF was in line which is interesting because eSPY intraday was not positive on the day, but put in a positive divegrence toward the close, QQQ put in more of a negative and IWM basically didn't do anything, just like their Index future counterparts.

Actually IWM made its first intraday 1 min negative divergence of the day (recall it had been in line all day), at 3:45 it put in its first negative. Other timeframes were negative in the IWM, I'm talking about the 1 min chart only,

I'm going to update my system so I can get the internals/breadth scans updated and check a few things in FX and I'll be back.


Sentiment (we use two indicators) was somewhat odd, one was in line which I would consider short term bullish while the other was underperforming.