January Overview, Market , AAPL and GLD Update

January 2014 has been the worst month for the market since May 2012 with the SPX finishing down-3.56%, the Dow-30 a whopping -5.28%, the NASDAQ Composite -1.74% and the Russell 2000 -2.82%.

Emerging Markets finished January down (via IShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) -8.61% (thus all the EM central bank action recently.

While TLT (the 20+ year Bond fund which we have been watching as a potential long for the better part of a year, finished up +8.61%.

I told you that so I could show you these charts which may give us some downside head fake targets.

 SPX daily. The consolidation of last week has been around the longer term trendline, while the shorter term trend line presents a very volatile, but possible head fake target.

RSI just shows the deterioration in January.

The same more or less can be said for the Dow's short term trend line, although the long term is broken.

The Composite has been consolidating along the long term trendline, I think the short term is a bit too far of a stretch for a head fake move.

The R2K is interesting as it has been consolidating along the short term trendline.

What is interesting is last week's very heavy volatility above and below the trendline.

Here are Emerging Markets, the high recent volume appears to be a short term bottom.

And here's TLT with a double bottom, I knew there was something going on here and note the head fake move at the second bottom before the launch higher.

 Here's the AAPL P/L from the March $500 calls opened 1/30

As for AAPL, it looks pretty god with early 3C confirmation, but I just don't see high probabilities of it making much more head way with the market making its move lower, which we expected for today, we also expect it to be a head fake move, but we'll need to wait for the data proving or disproving that to develop.

So far this is the SPY making its move below last week's range for the first time with the start of a small positive divegrence, this is a good sign, but not nearly large enough yet to call it a head fake, but that's a matter of time, I wouldn't expect it this quickly.

 The Q's this morning have not made it to the bottom of the range yet.

The IWM did and so far looks ok.

GLD which I entered Friday (March 120 Calls) I will leave open, it's already at a profit, remember it trades opposite the market so when I start seeing market divergences going positive and a rounding reversal process, I'll close the GLD calls for a gain and look at new positions to open, but this all still depends on a head fake move being successful and it's way too early to tell yet.