Monday, February 3, 2014

UNG Update

Last week we saw some divergences in UNG which looked strong enough to bring it down, especially considering the wide-legged Doji-Star right at resistance of the large base.

We also saw a short term corrective bounce-looking divergence forming Friday. Some of you want to add to UNG shorts, for me the DGAZ long position is at full size, I try not to average down losing trades, even if it looks like they are turning in my favor. If I were to, the only question that need be answered is, "Is this the best looking possible trade to put assets toward right now?"Usually there's a better looking trade somewhere and ultimately my goal is to make the most of the assets that are put to work in the market. Don't get me wrong, I still want to see the DGAZ position do well, but unless I planned to average in to the position as part of my risk management BEFORE the trade, I think it's a bad habit to dollar cost average.

That being said, here's what we have in UNG thus far this morning.
 UNG 3 min chart looking like a distribution area at the top, to the right is the corrective -looking divergence from Friday, it already has a small negative today to the far right.

On a 1 min chart which will show more detail faster, the positive from Friday is already seeing negative divergences form to the right side.

This looks to be migrating to the 2 min chart, but 3C needs to pivot down to lock that in.

Even if this does lock in, I would require some stronger signals as this is still very early before I added to a UNG TRADING short position, but there are definitely some signs it's moving that way, just not strong enough yet in my opinion to take the risk.

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