Monday, February 3, 2014

Quick Update

I was just going through some different assets to see if there was anything I liked a lot, but had missed.

It would seem that Financials would have a high probability of moving to the upside with a broad market move, maybe thy would, but the signals for XLF long or FAS long are some of the poorest so I'm thinking that even if they did move, they'd have weak relative performance and I want to commit assets to areas where I have my best potential for returns.

Likewise, you'd think VXX and UVXY (short term VIX futures) would have a lot of weakness with a market move to the upside and while they do have negative divergences, I don't see them as being strong relative performers so once again, what is the point of committing dry powder to an asset that may not be the best return on your investment?

In the case of these two specifically, I think Financials are "Just that weak" and in the case of short term VIX futures (VXX or UVXY), I think that even with a market move to the upside and the typical correlation between them and the market being opposite, I suspect there will be a lot of traders looking for an opportunity  to purchase protection via VXX / UVXY at any discount, thus giving them some level of support and being poor relative performers as short trades in a market bounce environment.

I do like the major averages. As I said, I do like HYG, although I prefer options as the beta is just not that impressive there.

I will wait on GLD, although I was very close.

I also closed the AAPL calls early today which I'm happy with, but I had hoped to be able to enter them again on a pullback which we got, however I'm not that impressed with the signals from AAPL thus far. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it doesn't look decent, it just doesn't look as good as other assets like any of the market averages.

HYG charts coming up.



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