Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Market Update

I'm still not ready to take on any new positions yet, it's not as much of a concern about whether we launch to the upside as it is timing.

It looks like we'll get an intraday pullback from here, if the market is getting stronger and going to make the move I expect making yesterday's plunge a head fake, then on the intraday pullback we should see intraday 3C charts improve out to the 5 min charts and I think we will.

I was just looking at the TICK charts and they really gave me a strong impression that we'd see an intraday pullback and then the 1 min Index futures that had been in line all this morning going negative (1 min only).

The averages have 1 min negative divergences intraday as well as they have most of the morning, the 2 min charts though are either very strong or have just a slight nit of weakness in their leading position, usually when we get a pullback intraday the 2 min charts go negative as well, but so far most of them, especially the IWM are holding up well.


 Intraday NYSE TICK trends often will give us early warning. Make sure to draw the channels.

My custom TICK Indicator gave early warning yesterday for the upside reversal or improvement, it seemed to be giving some early warning right now as well.

As far as the bottom divergence, take a look at Russell 2000 Futures.
 The 15 min chart is leading positive, this is good, but it won't accumulate and add to that divergence in to higher prices so a pullback intraday would actually do it some good and we can take the temperature of the market and make sure it accumulates lower prices as it should.

 The same with the 5 min chart which were barely positive last night, but heading that direction, this is a mandatory timeframe for a move and so far so good, but again, we won't get a stronger leading positive in to higher prices, they need to come down intraday.

And this is the intraday 1 min chart, it was in line, now it is nbegative so the probabilities of a pullback are very good and that's fine, we'll likely get a better idea of whether we get a wider "U" or a "W" formation.

As far as some assets that I'd like to play on the long side, but think they need pullbacks to build some strength, BIDU I'd like to see move down and have set price alerts to the $150 area.

MCP I don't think needs to do much other than continue to accumulate.

FSLR I have price alerts set for a move to the $47.75 area. I think these will be helpful areas for these assets and allow us to get good positioning and timing.

Movement is what we need to see what's going on so we should get some here.

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