Wednesday, February 5, 2014

STRANGE MARKET

When I'm quiet and not posting much it's not because I'm doing something else, it's because I'm looking everywhere on all kinds of charts to find what the crowd missed.

Today is one of the strangest days I've seen in a long time and even more so considering the incredible volatility of the last two weeks.

Most timeframes are almost dead flat, MCP got moving and that's what I'm looking for, but today whether it's the averages, the Index futures, the VIX, the USD/JPY, Yen or $USD, everything is on slow motion, almost pause, I can't remember ever seeing anything like this n such an otherwise volatile environment. I could post 30 or 40 charts to make my point, but I'll try to stick to a few.

The one concept with 3C is "If you can't get a clear signal on shorter timeframes, go to the longer ones where there's less noise and more trend". In that case, there are some clear pictures, but everything else is so flat I can't find a decent signal or correlation/confirmation anywhere and it has just grown worse as the day has gone one. Perhaps it's the old, "Pros trade the close"?

 1 min SPY positive at the "W" bottom as we wanted it to be, but remember I said I needed to see some strong movement before making any moves otherwise it's just opportunity cost in a range? Well since, no strong moves and it's on nearly every chart.

The 3 min looked promising, it was leading and then just shut down.

The 5 min is positive at the "W" bases, but nothing at all since, like the market is frozen.

The 15 min chart looks good, there was strong activity there earlier, but it has just paused since.

As I said, go to the longer charts like this 30 min SPY and we have a clear positive base that can support the kind of bounce we are looking for, but the short term charts moving is what gives us a timing element to know when to make out moves and they are dead in the water.

The QQQ is positive where it needs to be in the "W", but has done nothing since.

The 3 min chart looked like it was going to make a move and again, pause.

The longer term 15 min chart has a strong positive base for a good bounce, but still, same problem.

 IWM 2 min is no different

IWM 10 min iis as flat as can be, positive where we need it, but hasn't done anything else.

And the longer term has a good base in place, but the trigger is the short term charts.

Index futures are exactly the same if not worse.

FX is the same, the Yen, the USD, the VIX, all of them are dead flat or no movement at all which is very strange considering recent volatility.

THIS IS WHY I'M QUIET, QUIET MARKETS ALWAYS MAKE ME NERVOUS BECAUSE THEY ARE USUALLY UP TO SOMETHING SO AS SOON AS I FIND SOMETHING I'LL BRING IT TO YOU, BUT FOR NOW UNLESS I SEE MOVEMENT LIKE MCP WAS SHOWING, I THINK PATIENCE IS KEY.

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