Wednesday, March 26, 2014

FXP- Favorite Position Today

There are a number of positions doing well today, XLF April puts are up nearly 31%, GS April Puts are up +11% and while I considered taking gains on them, the signals weren't screaming to me so I think I'll have to be Jonny on the spot tomorrow morning if we get the opposite of the last 4 days and get a gap down that is faded back up, I'll want to take gains on those fast.

The SRTY position (long equity) was closed today in the trading portfolio to make some room for new positions and because of the momentum there for a 12+% gain.

I saw some things in GLD and UGLD (even though I'm packed there, I thought I'd mention them for you at some point, they had some nice looking charts, but didn't quite get to where I wanted to see them for a new or add-to position, but I think those need to be on the radar. GDX didn't look as good as some of the GLD signals, but I think it will be fine.

Most importantly there was progress in VXX.

As far as my favorite position today, it's FXP which I've been waiting for all year, a way to play China short. We've been tracking it and with the recent talk this week about possible PBoC stimulus which the PBoC already said, "Don't expect any", it seems to have been a perfect opportunity not only for the pullback/entry, but a break of the trendline which triggers stops, creates accumulation of the supply from those stops so the entry there looked to be right on cue.

Here are the charts for FXP which is one of the few actionable assets today, the others will get there, but today wasn't the day, tomorrow morning may be hectic with existing positions like the XLF puts, they may need to be closed quickly right after the open, the rest of the afternoon looked like more stop runs, but I'll update and take a closer look in a bit.

As for FXP, China 25 Short...
 You can see why we had trouble finding an entry in FXP on a pullback this year, but the break of the trendline was a great area, I don't know if we fill the gap and maybe head even lower, even if we do this is still very tradable, we'll see how we look when we are in the area.

The daily candlestick looks good for being right under support of the trendline.

We also have a rounding/reversal process as seen on the 60 min chart for FXP, that means we should have accumulation of the pullback, the kind of pullback we want to buy.

The 60 min shows the negative as the PBoC rumors started floating and the recent positive 60 min in white.

The 15 min is flying and looks great for at least a swing trade.

The 10 min

A beautiful 5 min and as far as timing, the intraday charts looked great.

1 min.

So among a lot of noise today and some rotation out of IWM and toward QQQ which looked horrible as early as today, now looks a lot better, but today, this was the best looking of the positions and I just hope that this can do more than just swing, but hold a trend.



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