Wednesday, March 26, 2014

A.M. Observations....

It's another overnight, a.m. market ramp... lets see, that makes the fourth in a row.
 ES/SPX E-mini futures overnight with a positive divergence on the 1 min in to 4 a.m. just after the European open and pop goes the ramp with more gusto than yesterday.

Is this a news or data driven ramp? I doubt it, I think it's nothing more than our letter of the day which is "W"
This is the "W" bottom of the last 2  days or "W" base, it's the reason we opened longs for a short trade like SPY weekly calls Monday and closed yesterday morning and new IWM calls yesterday to take advantage of what the market has clearly been showing us.

Three of four of those ramps failed miserably soon after the open. Was the market conditioning traders to fade the open again today? I don't know, we will see if there's confirmation today on the gap opening, there hasn't been on the 3 days the market faded the gap open.

I have the IWM weekly calls in place, I planned on adding April monthlies if the IWM broke below $116.19 on a head fake move, that could happen, if it doesn't that's fine, I'm not chasing.

I'm also not worried about this ramp as far as shorts go, I've left a lot of trading shorts in place and all core/trend shorts in place, I just made some changes where there was good reason, for instance DUST/NUGT had good reason on the charts, we'll see if there's anything else that gives us good reason to make a move for some extra profit, otherwise, like my favorite trader, Livermore, says, "Sit tight".

I'll be looking early to see if there's any kind of confirmation, even if this turns out to be another "Fade the a.m. gap", it may just be to fill the gap and may turn right around, in any case there's opportunity on positions we opened for this which are small and speculative and there may be additional opportunities on new positions, I'll let you know what I see.

Have a GREAT day, HOPE that the VXX gets knocked down a bit so that will accumulate and the market can start making some real moves that are more than 1% (on the downside).




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