Wednesday, March 26, 2014

UGLD and NUGT Position Updates

It looks like both our UGLD (3x long Gold) and NUGT (3x long Gold Miners) positions both saw head fake moves this morning, the volume is consistent with stops getting hit and there was a very clear level of support that those stops would have congregated below.

I'm loaded with both so there's no adding there for me, I might look at a call position "if" the signals intraday get to the point that I can't look away from them. For now though I'm not concerned with either position, I'm just keeping an eye on them.

GLD
 5 min leading positive, there was a 2-day intraday support zone that was very clear, you can see volume jumped up as stops were hit and/or shorts entered, this is fine thus far with this 5 min leading positive divegrence, it puts the probabilities of this being an intraday head fake move pretty high.

 Intraday there's a small "W" type base forming, I don't think this is all there is as the 2 min is positive, but not hugely so, I might look for a little more lateral movement. If charts like this start flying positive, a GLD call may be in order, I'd be looking for April monthly calls in that case.

NUGT 3x long GDX/Gold Miners
 The same type of move is evident here as well, support broken and on volume, but a good 15 min leading positive puts probabilities in the camp of a head fake move, but timing with options or leveraged positions is more important so I'm still watching intraday activity here.

 NUGT 5 min has held up well for a break like that, if it were more than a stop run I'd expect deterioration, it has held up well thus far.

NUGT 1 min is a relative positive, it's not too different than GLD's intraday charts, these are what would have to improve a lot intraday for me to consider adding to a position in these assets or add more heavily leveraged positions like calls (although I do have a GDX call open as well).

Otherwise as far as NUGT and UGLD positions (equity longs), I'm not concerned about them considering the support zone being so obvious and volume showing stops were run.

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