First the IWM is moving closer to the level at which I would consider adding some calls, but with some new information developing, I'd have to feel darn certain and I may cut the expiration to a nearer weekly expiration like 1 week out (not this week, but not monthly either)... the reason?
It looks like what I've been looking for (the reason for the market action over the last week and this "W" base/ascending triangle over the last 2-days), VXX accumulation and the "Flying divergences" we only see in VIX related assets, may be developing finally. A move higher in the market, even for a day or 2, even for only a couple point may be all that is needed to take this seed of expectation and grow it out to full bloom, the primary trend change signal via VIX futures.
Let me try to show with charts (you can see what the IWM is doing and you know the level I'm looking for it to break under on a quick head fake-$116.19).
VXX / UVXY Short term VIX Futures & VIX Futures.
Remember, VIX/VIX Futures "typically" trade opposite the market, but during the February rally they had a much stronger relative performance than they should have, protection was being sought and the long term charts look good, however, when the VXX is ready to move, meaning the market is about to drop, we see these unbelievable divergences look like they are flying, much stronger than a typical leading divegrence and we see them in VIX products because fear is the strongest emotion in the market, when there's fear, there's a flight to safety and protection, VIX futures are that protection.
VIX Futures...
VIX 1 min futures are accumulating right now.
As are the 5 min in the same area
And right out to 15 min so this is a pretty strong divergence to hit a 15 min chart that quickly.
VXX / UVXY Short term VIX Futures...
This is a good looking 5 min VXX chart, it's nearly where it needs to be, but for 3-4 weeks I have been waiting to call this out as a new position, I have not seen the short term 1-3 min signals flying and thus I have waited, good thing too considering the choppy performance, but now... We are getting movement.
The 1 min is starting what could be one of these "Flying" divergences, that's what I've been waiting for.
The 2 min chart (UVXY 2x VXX) is showing the same, in other words the migration of the divergence is present here as well as VIX futures giving us better confirmation that this is something to pay attention to.
The VXX 3 min is nearly there, but not quite..
This is what these charts should look like when VXX is ready to move, THAT IS OUR SIGNAL FOR A DOWNSIDE MOVE IN THE BROADER MARKET AND A BIG ONE, NOT A MOVE DOWN FROM THE LAST 2 DAYS.
This is what a flying divergence in VXX would look like (more or less), very steep, very vertical.
If the market can pop to the upside a bit, VXX can finish accumulating and give us this signal, that's why this move has been important to me beyond a small 2 day base.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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