Market Expectations Seem to be Advancing Faster than Thought- Rhetoric?

Late this morning it seems like something is bothering the market a bit, I don't know if it was this earlier story from this morning on USA Today, which really dials up the rhetoric, at least putting immense pressure on the West if not actually being an immediate threat, it's clearly meant to do so. The story from USA Today is below, you'll understand why it increases the pressure on the US to possibly react in defense of the Ukraine from a 1998 pact signed in Budapest.

Again, I don't know if this is weighing on the market, but it has been lagging the USD/JPY correlation a lot the last week, there's been a lot more relative weakness than I suspected and as of late this morning...

 a divergence sent the SPY red...

The same is happening in the Q's which had the best divergence of a lot of poor ones.

 QQQ 3 min

The main point though is how these averages effect VXX, that's the key fulcrum asset I'm most concerned with on a timing and position basis. Things are moving faster now than I anticipated...

 We saw earlier the VXX starting to go positive which is natural and the natural start to the divegrence I'm looking for here, however...

As you can see, these "Flying " leading divergences that only VIX assets see (likely because they are fear based assets ad are moved more by emotion) are developing very quickly.

I think the reversal process in the VXX would be too tight right now, but fundamental news if it breaks "can" run divergences over that are so weak as to only occupy 1 and 2 minute timeframes (market positives that started Friday afternoon).

I don't want to see that happen, I want to see the process play out as it gives us time to asses which assets are the right choices at this moment, that's a process I'm going to accelerate right now, about a day ahead of schedule (maybe a little less).

The 5 min VXX chart has added a lot of leading positive today alone. Again I point out how narrow the reversal process since Friday's signal of a VXX decline started, actually is. I'd think this would widen at least to a "W" with this first "U" being the first part of that "W", but again we'll have to watch for the signals.

I'm going to accelerate the asset choice process and get on with that now. It's important that they are chosen at the best possible timing and I expected that to be a bit longer, but I need to narrow the list right now just in case things turn faster than anticipated.



From USA Today, which might be dialing up the pressure for an all out US / Russian conflict as far fetched as that seems...It's all about market sentiment and fear, not so much reality.

The United States, Great Britain and Russia agreed in a pact "to assure Ukraine's territorial integrity" in return for Ukraine giving up a nuclear arsenal it inherited from the Soviet Union after declaring independence in 1991, said Pavlo Rizanenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament.

"We gave up nuclear weapons because of this agreement," said Rizanenko, a member of the Udar Party headed by Vitali Klitschko, a candidate for president. "Now there's a strong sentiment in Ukraine that we made a big mistake."

  know

...

Rizanenko and others in Ukraine say the pact it made with the United States under President Bill Clinton was supposed to prevent such Russian invasions.

The pact was made after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991 and became Russia, leaving the newly independent nation of Ukraine as the world's third largest nuclear weapons power.

...

To reassure the Ukrainians, the United States and leaders of the United Kingdom and Russia signed in 1994 the "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" in which the signatories promised that none of them would threaten or use force to alter the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.

They specifically pledged not to militarily occupy Ukraine. Although the pact was made binding according to international law, it said nothing that requires a nation to act against another that invades Ukraine.

The memorandum requires only that the signatories would "consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments." Ukraine gave up thousands of nuclear warheads in return for the promise.

...

The U.S. and U.K. have said that the agreement remains binding and that they expect it to be treated "with utmost seriousness, and expect Russia to, as well."

...

"Everyone had this sentiment that for good or bad the United States would be the world police" and make sure that international order is maintained, Rizanenko said of the Budapest pact.

"Now that function is being abandoned by President Obama and because of that Russia invaded Crimea," he said.

"In the future, no matter how the situation is resolved in Crimea, we need a much stronger Ukraine," he said. "If you have nuclear weapons people don't invade you."