Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Market Update: So Far, So Good

So far this is not only what should be happening, it's even better in that there hasn't been that much upside, but it's enough to get the job done (I can't really expect that much upside when the positive market divergences are 1 and 2 minute for the most part).

Here's a look at the early stages of what I believe and have believed since Friday afternoon would be the pivot or transition as the topping area is very mature from the Feb rally.

 SPY 1 min negative intraday, we do have some upside, the weakness is not part of what I forecast, but it's not surprising and it still works to get the job done which is largely in the VIX futures.

SPY 2 min is in line, we saw the lack of divergences especially in the SPY with the Q's having the better looking charts, although also very weak for even a mini cycle.

 QQQ 1 min with some leading positive yesterday, now in line and performing at least on par with expectations.

QQQ 2 min is in line.

QQQ 3 min shows the entire process from last week and the upside predicted early this week, note the overall negative divegrence right at a 3 min chart.

 The IWM 1 min is pretty much in line which is fine for a move underway.

And the 3 min chart has a little more impressive positive divegrence so I think this could last through the day easily, but at the same time the VXX should be transforming which is starting already.

This is the 1 min VXX, it doesn't look like much other than inline, but the price trend is what we forecasted, it's the accumulation in to the price trend we are looking for as our pivot, look closer at the same chart...

The VXX is already starting it's positive divegrence which is exactly what Friday's afternoon analysis was looking for, but we needed that pullback for the accumulation which means some market upside which has been tame thus far, whatever gets the job done.

The UVXY is also now starting to produce the same divergence.

WATCH FOR VXX AND UVXY TO START LOSING DOWNSIDE SLOPE AND TURNING MORE LATERAL, THAT'S WHERE THE ACCUMULATION WILL REALLY START PICKING UP AND THAT'S WHERE WE SHOULD FIND OUR PIVOT.

More to come...

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