I just took a quick look at leading indicators and while I didn't see anything screaming, I didn't expect to with the chop/noise trend since last week, I was looking for stuff closer to home or very near term trade such as would be consistent with the VXX position.
I found that HYG was roughly in line, not leading. However the more finicky High Yield Credit was negatively dislocated and is giving a signal consistent with the market averages update earlier in which I said I thought a pullback in the market was likely, but to widen yesterday's small base, still leaving a very small base, but more reasonable than yesterday's alone.
Sentiment was also underperforming and negatively dislocated along the same lines as the averages and a pullback.
VXX of course was underperforming its correlation handily, but that would be the case on a head fake move, whereas the other flight to safety trade (or protection), TLT was handily outperforming the correlation with the SPX.
Yields were also negatively displaced, they tend to pull price toward them like a magnet, this wasn't a huge local divergence, but again, along the lined of earlier analysis and essentially the same analysis from late last Friday.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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