Tuesday, April 29, 2014

VXX / UVXY Short Term VIX Futures Update

I have been watching both the longer term VXX charts as well as recently (this morning) the short term charts and already have the quotes set up for weekly (this and next) call options, the only thing I'm a little skeptical of is duration and that's not a problem as far as leverage; I almost think there's going to be an intraday pullback that may require the positions be closed intraday and I try to stay away from ideas that are day trades. I suppose I'll watch them a bit longer and see if there may be an opportunity for a longer duration position, but for those of you who don't mind a day trade and can tend to it, take a look at the charts.

 VXX 1 min from in line to a flat range where we often see accumulation/distribution which is ironic because looking at price only, action looks dull unless it's very tight (the range), to a leading positive divegrence.

 UVXY 2 min... These are not quite where I'd take the trade anyway, but with the range , a possible head fake under the range and the ability to add to the divergence, this is looking like a more probable trade.

 VXX 3 min is seeing migration.

 I wouldn't take the trade until/unless the 5 min chart looks quite a bit better, but with the migration moving and the range in place, it's looking like a more probable position.

 UVXY 10 min from nearly perfectly in line to a leading positive divegrence, again, the duration of a base or the footprint here is the immediate problem I see as it suggests the trade may not be long enough to move in to tomorrow.


VXX 15 min shows the change in character in VIX short term futures, from in line to the left (remember this is a rolling contract) to a leading positive divergence, this is indicative of the longer term charts that we see in the averages as well.

What the averages do today will also have a big impact on VXX as they move inversely so keep an eye on market updates.

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