Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Quick Market Update & Likely Trade Idea Coming

Remember the VXX / UVXY potential trade idea from earlier today, well from this market update it is looking more likely to be the kind of trade I would want to enter (not a day trade, but worthwhile with some leverage, but I'll post VXX next).

The charts seem to show what I expected yesterday, a pullback coming, but likely to form a little larger base than just yesterday's half a day, that would make VXX a decent quick trade or UVXY (both long or calls). The 5 min charts for the averages aren't seeing near term damage today and this is why I think a pullback to widen yesterday's foot print is likely.

 DIA 1 min intraday negative looks like a pullback as expected late yesterday is becoming high probability.

With only a 1 min chart negative there's about a 50/50 chance it's a consolidation or pullback (time vs price), buy when a 2 min or longer chart is also divegrnet, the probabilities go way up toward a pullback rather than consolidation.

And the DIA 3 min, as I said, no damage to 5 min charts intraday.

IWM 1 min leading negative, it got a head start late yesterday, but it's still a valid signal.

QQQ 3 mins leading negative, a pullback at this point looks very likely and VXX/UVXY should bounce a bit on the pullback.

SPY 1 min leading negative divergence

SPY 3 min

Again, no 5 min so I think this is a constructive pullback for a little wider foot print, but we won't know that for sure until we see a pullback and confirm accumulation, otherwise it's likely nervousness in front of tomorrow's F_O_M_C, either way, VXX should see some upside, those charts are coming next.

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