Futures

Futures immediate reaction to the NFP was the same we have been use to seeing over the last 4 or 5 years when the market fears the F_E_D is going to take away the "punchbowl" as it has become to be known.

That means $USD up, Treasuries down and gold down. There are some interesting things in that which make me feel like the NFP was leaked, for instance remember the very strong positive divegrence in the $USDX the last few days? Whoever was buying $USD's made out this morning.

How about treasuries? Yesterday we opened a "short term bounce trade" in TBT (UltraShort 20+ year Treasuries), the inverse of TLT which gapped up this morning and that was based on 3C signals. 

Or How about GLD, we've been mainly talking about it in the context of GDX (gold miners) as the correlation is tight, but recall the rectangle and the prediction days ago that GDX would fall out of the rectangle and we needed to wait on a long NUGT position until that has happened?

In any case, I have quite a bit of data that looks like a clear leak in the NFP data, however at the same time, the initial surge in futures up or down on this morning's NFP seems to be rapidly changing.

Lets look at a few quickly as it seems the market is going to start moving quickly and I need to be paying attention.

 The initial reaction in the $USDX on a 5 min chart showing some of the positive divegrence we have seen there for a couple of days, note the negative divegrence on the push up on the NFP release...

 Now $USDX has retraced all of the NFP gains and seems to be heading lower.

30 year treasury futures dropped on the release of the NFP, we saw something yesterday that fit with this as we opened a short term TBT trade below...

As I said, it's a fast moving market, here's a capture of the same 30 year Treasury futures I just took now, minutes after the initial...

30 year Treasury futures, however there's another mystery besides the about face in prices, 3C isn't confirming...

The Ukraine escalation or...?

In any case, note the distribution in /ZB just before the NFP was released, again it seems someone knew something and it was obvious yesterday on TLT/TBT charts as well.

TBT initially gapped up and has now reversed, just like 30 year Treasury futures.

 Gold initially dropped on the release as you'll see in Gold Futures below, then did an about face.

Gold Futures 1 min with a drop right on the NFP release, however there was an intraday positive divegrence right in to the lows.

Again, did someone know something?

*For the most part these are very short term signals. For example..

5 min Gold Futures are improving as they should, but are not showing the kind of divergence that would tell us a solid move up in gold is imminent, one that will hold...

 As for the USD/JPY, this was my initial capture, it spiked of course as the $USDX spiked, there was a small negative divegrence in to that spike, soon after I captured the chart again...

 And the USD/JPY was heading down, now look at the pair...

This is because of the $USD losing ground, AT LEAST NOW WE KNOW THAT THE LEGACY ARBITRAGE BETWEEN THE $USD AND GOLD IS STARTING TO RE-EMRGE AFTER YEARS OF DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE UNDER F_E_D MANIPULATION.

AND THE AUD/JPY,  this is the pair that was seemingly correlated to ES in early action, that correlation seems to still be holding, although I'll have to re-check whether it's that or USD/JPY now driving.

FAST moving market indeed, even faster than I thought when I started this post a few minutes ago.