GDX / NUGT Update

I'll also try to get out a GLD update.

I think GDX / NUGT will be coming back down, probably sooner than later (I'm thinking likely today, but I DO NOT like DUST even as a counter trend quick play)...

This post, GDX / NUGT / DUST Update is from Wednesday April 30th, detailing near term expectations for GDX/NUGT which have already come to pass, although I think there's more to be done, but the entire trade set up in which GDX/NUGT COME TO US on our terms at a better entry point, lower risk and much better timing so we don't have open market risk or opportunity cost, can be found in the post linked above.

There's also the longer term GDX perspective in which this looks like one of the few strong (long) trending trade candidates, so a trade set up in GDX/NUGT isn't just for a bounce or a swing move, this is a pretty serious position.

The charts ... (I've used GDX, NUGT and DUST to confirm each other).

 This is the GDX daily chart and the range that has been so obvious (a technical price pattern called a rectangle). GDX spent about 6 days inside that range making it very obvious and a strong candidate for s stop run just below support which it seems we saw a little of in yellow, but I suspect before GDX is done with this area and moves on to a upside trade, it will likely create a bear trap and do some more work below support as it popped back inside the triangle today.



As far as GDX pulling back, this is the 1 min intraday leading negative.

 This is NUGT (the 3x long version of GDX) with a 1 min negative

And this is DUST (the 3x inverse GDX ETF) with a 1 min positive, that's confirmation in all 3 assets on the same timeframe.

This is the GDX 3 min chart , also with a negative intraday signal.

This is NUGT 3 min with a negative signal

And this is DUST showing distribution before its fall and a small relative positive, this is one of the reasons I DO NOT like DUSt as a counter trend quick trade, the objective data to support the trade is not there even if I do expect GDX/NUGT to come back down.

This is GDX 5 min and it's not confirming so it's in an intraday leading negative position.

The same 5 min chart seen through the range of GDX looks like this...

 It looks VERY much like GDX has been accumulated through this range and the small negatives seem to be creating the range and s ending GDX back to support where it is accumulated as a larger position (long) looks to be under construction. This fits well with the longer term charts which are where the highest trend probabilities are, in other words the longer term charts are telling us the probabilities of this area resolving to the upside are strong.

For example...

This 4 hour GDX chart shows a stage 1 base or the low of it, I'm not convinced that we are not still in the base area. There was a confirmed move higher and a small negative divegrence for a pullback creating something that looks like a bullish Cup and Handle price pattern (although technically not textbook). Within the pullback area we have a very strong leading positive divegrence which is the behavior of a base, not a stage 2 trend meaning the larger the base is, the larger the trend and the longer the can support the trend to the upside.

The "Price Implied Target" as of now is at least $42.

This is the NUGT 5 min chart with a relative negative divegrence, thus supporting the idea of GDX/NUGT pulling back from today's earlier move up.

This is DUST (the opposite of GDX/NUGT) 5 min chart, you can clearly see the negative divegrence for a move down here, but there's nothing more than an "in line" signal right now, thus I see no edge in trading DUST, despite the fact I think GDX will come down. Perhaps something develops later that is more interesting in DUST.

 This is GDX's 10 min chart and one of the main reasons the GDX / NUGT / DUST Update post was urging patience  as the negative divegrence here indicated to me a high probability of a move BELOW the rectangle trading range and a head fake set up in the area, which would give us an excellent entry once the 10 and 15 min charts that look like this are resolved to a positive divegrence.

This is NUGT's 10 min chart, there is minor improvement on it today, a higher 3C high would be definitive improvement and I think they need to pullback even if the intraday signals weren't there, to do that work.